creditmarkets
S&P 500 continued the real FOMC move, which points down as befits tightening into slowing economy on simultaneous proclamations of strong banks. Short end of the yield curve didn‘t really budge yesterday, and the only factor beyond my Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings expectation allowing me to call for a modestly bullish Friday, was of technical nature. Selling in bonds was slowly evaporating, and several key sectors I like to watch in connection with the 500-strong index, were nearing their logical supports without either showing willingness to break them. Bears won‘t have an easy day as the bear...
ValueWalk
Monday, S&P 500 bulls managed to come back twice intraday, but I‘m afraid they‘re scraping the barrel. Tech earnings are ahead, UBS negatively surprised in the European morning, and the bulls may just not pull another rabbit out their hats next. (…) the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs (similar to real estate) didn‘t spur enough Fed tightening bets. Even if oil corrected to my $77.50 Friday, that‘s though not enough to support all out rebound in PMIs unless the dollar agrees, and manufacturing would turn lower again over the coming 2+ months as LEIs continue declining for 12 mon...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 bears had three good reasons to force a close lower – high consumer inflation expectations, weak retail sales and Waller saying that however you look at it, inflation is too high and doesn‘t allow the Fed to declare mission completed. While the rebound into the close was both in value and tech, the market breadth (shown in the next chart), remains disastrous (check divergencies to Feb values), and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain highly selective. Q1 2023 hedge fund letters, conferences and more (…) I‘m also bullish oil stocks ($XOM, $SLB), copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt. This is the de...
ValueWalk
The damaging combination of rising government bond yields and widening credit spreads made for a very tough quarter for fixed income investors – one of the weakest since the Global Financial Crisis, according to Jeff Boswell, Head of Alternative Credit. 14 July 2022 The second quarter was particularly brutal for all fixed income investors, with a categoric repricing of risk leaving very few places to hide. Fixed income investors experienced the double body-blow of rising government bond yields alongside widening credit spreads, leading to some of the largest negative quarterly returns experien...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing P...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Likewise as regards my other ...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a si...
ValueWalk
Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the omicron response relief (thus far. yet APT has risen sharply to counter the bullish and wildly profitable oil message) coupled with the yesterday mentioned market friendly Fed: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more (…) The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation ...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while clouds gather on the horizon – Thursday‘s inability of financials to keep intraday gains while yields rose, is but one albeit short-term sign. The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels....
ValueWalk
S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more (…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday...
ValueWalk
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