gdx
August marked the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard. It caused so many problems for the economy…and gold didn’t take over? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The 50th Anniversary Of Nixon’s Abandonment Of The Gold StandardLast month marked the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s suspension of the convertibility of US dollars into gold. This move broke the last, thin link between world currencies and the yellow metal, effectively ending the ersatz of the gold standard that we still had back then (the official end came in March 1973, marking the start o...
ValueWalk
So much money printed. Excessive debt. Even pandemic! And gold failed to hold gains. But that’s how markets work, no matter what gold permabulls say. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A Major Downtrend In GoldGold plunged yesterday, just as it was likely to. The fake reason? U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations. The real reason? A major downtrend. On the above gold chart, I added annotations that show what happened in the previous 3 cases after the retail sales reports. We saw the following: gold declined after retail sales disappointed in Junegold topped after retail sales o...
ValueWalk
Inflation softened further in August, and gold reacted positively. Look closely at what the Fed’s doing, as that’s where the clues for the future are. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Consumer Inflation Eases In AugustConsumer inflation eased further in August. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.5% in July. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also softened — it rose 0.1% after increasing 0.3% in the preceding month. It was the smallest increase since February 2021. The deceleration was mainly caused...
ValueWalk
The medium-term outlook for precious metals is a bearish one, and as gold moves lower, the miners will move lower faster. Small price jumps don’t count. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Let’s get this straight, we’re not day traders, and getting excited about an occasional bounce is much ado about nothing. Remember when I told you yesterday that the “strength” of gold stocks was likely more or less random and not a true sign of strength? Yesterday’s lack thereof confirmed it. Gold moved higher, but gold stocks almost didn’t. Implications? That was just a tiny, inconsequential, ...
ValueWalk
The ECB tapered its asset purchases. Only that it didn’t taper at all. Are you confused? Gold isn’t – it simply doesn’t care. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Phantom TaperTapering has begun. For now, in the Eurozone. This is at least what headlines suggest, as last week, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting. The European central bankers decided to slow down the pace of their asset purchases: Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing con...
ValueWalk
There are two software development strategies. “Waterfall,” which produces a product sequential, sending stages of development through various departments until it is finished. And “Agile strategy,” which, on the other hand, is all focused on “time to market.” It identified that product placement is doomed to fail if the rate of change outside a company is faster than the rate of change inside the company. It focuses on a parallel effort of teams to produce an MVP (minimum viable product). Investing isn’t much different. If you follow sequentially through news and buy an investment when the me...
ValueWalk
Autumn is just around the corner, and while the precious metals tasted some success most recently, the medium-term is still set for a downtrend. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Powell Sticking To His Dovish GunsWith Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticking to his dovish guns and U.S. nonfarm payrolls elongating the central bank’s perceived taper timeline, gold, silver, and mining stocks were extremely happy campers. However, with event-driven rallies much more semblance than substance, I warned on Sep. 7 that the rollercoaster of emotions would likely end in tears. I wrote: With th...
ValueWalk
One word shakes the markets, causing a lot of fear: stagflation. Is it coming? Will it push gold out from stagnation? Let’s find out. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Risk Of StagflationOne of the greatest risks cited currently by the markets is stagflation. The term means a situation in which there is high inflation and stagnation at the same time. So far, we have only had high inflation (CPI annual rate has soared 5.4%, and almost 5% if we take the quarterly average), but some analysts believe that inflation has already peaked. However, the economic growth is fast (the GD...
ValueWalk
Gold-backed ETFs experienced net outflows of $1.3 billion in August, though selling primarily occurred among a small concentration of major US funds and was triggered by the dollar’s brief strengthening and rising Treasury yields at the beginning of the month, according to new data released today by World Gold Council. Following a recovery in gold prices late in the month, global gold-backed ETF AUM now stands at US$211bn. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Outflows In Gold ETFsAdditional report highlights include: Regionally: North American funds: declined by US$1.8bn (1.7% AUM)...
ValueWalk
Easy come, easy go. The yellow metal rallied on Friday just to plunge on Tuesday. What’s your next move, Mr. Gold? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Ugh, the recent rally in gold prices was really short-lived. As the chart below shows, the price of gold increased after the publication of disappointing nonfarm payrolls on Friday. However, it declined as soon as on Tuesday, and on Wednesday it slid below $1,800. I have to admit that I expected a more bullish performance. To be clear: I was far from opening champagne. For instance, I pointed out that the tapering of quantitative ea...
ValueWalk
閲覧を続けるには、ノアドット株式会社が「プライバシーポリシー」に定める「アクセスデータ」を取得することを含む「nor.利用規約」に同意する必要があります。
「これは何?」という方はこちら