goldminers
What a difference 24h can make, huh? Gold rallied visibly on Monday, only to give it back on Tuesday. Same with miners. What’s next? Exactly the same thing that was likely before yesterday’s session. One of the things that indicated that decline was silver’s outperformance – this indication rarely fails to deliver. It’s surprising for those, who are new to the silver market, but it’s true – the white metal tends to fake strength relative to gold right before the entire sector turns south. We saw that once again. That was fake strength. Fake weakness was what we recently saw in the USD Index. A...
ValueWalk
Of course, they could. But will they? Are they likely to? RSI below 30 seems to be saying so, but… There are many factors that one needs to consider when analyzing any market. Looking at a single indicator might be misleading. If it was that easy, everyone’s trades would always be profitable, right? But they aren’t. That was the top – probably the yearly top and the start of an enormous decline. And what happened this month clearly confirms this scenario. Now, the Gold Miners (GDXJ) just touched its rising red support line that’s based on two important bottoms, and at the same time, the GDXJ-b...
ValueWalk
Mining stocks were picked up by investors in the latest bullish wave. But these bad performers may be dumped just as quickly as they were bought. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A New Bull Market For Mining StocksAfter the HUI Index rallied back above the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, a new bull market for mining stocks has finally begun. Or has it? Well, after an identical development occurred in 2000, the HUI Index soon invalidated the breakout (and once again confirmed the breakdown) and a sharp decline followed. Please see below: As further evidence, st...
ValueWalk
Ignoring cycles, trends, and technical patterns is a potential recipe for disaster. The HUI index can tell us a lot about the near future. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The HUI Index PlungesAfter the HUI Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the index further validated the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern. For context, H&S’ breakdowns have coincided with the largest declines in the HUI Index in recent decades. And while gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal point may stop the bleeding in the very short-term, the HUI Index’s wounds are fa...
ValueWalk
Autumn is just around the corner, and while the precious metals tasted some success most recently, the medium-term is still set for a downtrend. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Powell Sticking To His Dovish GunsWith Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticking to his dovish guns and U.S. nonfarm payrolls elongating the central bank’s perceived taper timeline, gold, silver, and mining stocks were extremely happy campers. However, with event-driven rallies much more semblance than substance, I warned on Sep. 7 that the rollercoaster of emotions would likely end in tears. I wrote: With th...
ValueWalk
The junior mining stocks’ extreme underperformance is the “new normal” that barely anyone talks about. Ignorance is pleasant, but it comes at a cost. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Junior Mining Stocks vs GoldTo be clear: it’s something very important right now. Juniors, as well as senior mining stocks, are very weak compared to gold, which means that they are not reacting to gold’s gains but multiplying gold’s declines instead. This doesn’t just mean that the profits on our short positions in juniors are increasing almost constantly – it also means that the entire precious m...
ValueWalk
Another day, another decline in junior miners – and another increase in profits from short positions in them. Shouldn’t we expect a rebound though? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Rebound In Gold PricesWell, no. The rebound already happened in late July and early August, and what we see now is the trend being resumed. Consequently, even if it wasn’t for all the long-term analogies to the 2012-2013 declines in gold and gold stocks (HUI Index), one should expect the current short-term decline to be significantly bigger than the counter-trend upswing which ended earlier this ...
ValueWalk
Powell’s recent dovish remarks started a sugar high among investors. However, it seems like the hangover has already begun. [soros] Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Gold MinersWhile gold, silver and mining stocks jumped for joy following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Jul. 28, their sugar high ended on Jul. 30. And while I warned that FOMC press conferences often elicit short-term bursts of optimism, it was likely another case of ‘been there, done that.’ I wrote prior to the announcement: While the PMs may record a short-term bounce – which often occurs foll...
ValueWalk
While gold moved slightly above its recent highs yesterday, the gold stocks moved to their previous lows. Can you hear the bears approaching? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Reversal In GoldGold made another reversal yesterday, and the miners declined profoundly – also once again. Just as in early 2013 – that’s extremely bearish. Gold futures moved to new intraday highs yesterday, but they ended the session $1.90 lower, creating yet another shooting star reversal candlestick. Seeing just one reversal is bearish on its own, but seeing more than one in a row is profoundly bearis...
ValueWalk
The gold miners’ 2021 gains prompted a standing ovation among investors. However, they didn’t notice a magic trick until everything vanished. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Gold MinersAfter the HUI Index plunged by more than 10% and made all of its 2021 gains disappear, the magic trick left investors in a state of shock. But while Mr. Market still hasn’t sawed the HUI Index in half, the illusionist is likely gearing up for his greatest reveal. Case in point: while the Zig Zag Girl captivated audiences in the 1960s, the HUI Index’s zigzag correction leaves little to the im...
ValueWalk
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