huiindex
Do small upswings really matter if one has medium-term goals in mind? Have the bulls come home? Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Back And Forth Movement In GoldThe medium-term back and forth movement in gold continues. If I could make the markets move in a certain direction sooner, and end the prolonged consolidation, I would. However, I can’t, and the only thing that I can do is to report to you what I see on the markets and describe what my course of action will be. During yesterday’s session we saw more of what we’ve been seeing in the previous days. Gold moved higher, a...
ValueWalk
Ignoring cycles, trends, and technical patterns is a potential recipe for disaster. The HUI index can tell us a lot about the near future. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The HUI Index PlungesAfter the HUI Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the index further validated the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern. For context, H&S’ breakdowns have coincided with the largest declines in the HUI Index in recent decades. And while gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal point may stop the bleeding in the very short-term, the HUI Index’s wounds are fa...
ValueWalk
Powell’s recent dovish remarks started a sugar high among investors. However, it seems like the hangover has already begun. [soros] Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Gold MinersWhile gold, silver and mining stocks jumped for joy following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Jul. 28, their sugar high ended on Jul. 30. And while I warned that FOMC press conferences often elicit short-term bursts of optimism, it was likely another case of ‘been there, done that.’ I wrote prior to the announcement: While the PMs may record a short-term bounce – which often occurs foll...
ValueWalk
As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold? Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Short-Term ImplicationsWith gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation. Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding. Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance...
ValueWalk
Gold scored some victories over the past days, but it’s playing a risky game. One misstep and the yellow metal might lose the war. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Sometimes, a good strategist needs to give up a few battles to eventually win the war. Or, at least, convince their enemy that they’re defeated while preparing a counterattack. Just the same, a chess player may need to sacrifice a piece in order to checkmate a king. Sun Tzu has spoken, and the Art of War translates well here. In the world of trading, the same rules often apply. A good investor needs to give up a few ...
ValueWalk
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