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A Cyclical Correction Looks “Priced into The Market”The economic headlines last week were anything but reassuring, yet stocks rose anyway. It can be a challenge for investors to make sense of why stocks rally in the face of missed earnings and, in some cases, lower guidance. But time and time again, a big drop in stock prices typically precedes a tsunami of bearish data followed by a rally in the averages ahead of the headlines and data turning positive again. Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This mental dilemma can make it difficult to pull the trigger and raise exposure to eq...
ValueWalk
Stocks continue to struggle. Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 closed down 2.92%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended down 4.14%. But something changed in the markets a couple weeks ago… All year, a few key sectors have consistently defied weak markets and marched higher. Commodity-related stocks like oil, metals, and fertilizer went up while many other stocks went down. Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more But two weeks ago, the selling pressure was indiscriminate. Even the sectors that were consistently outperforming the market plunged. As an investor, you may be wondering when this weakn...
ValueWalk
As the S&P 500 marches on, the VIX is trading at pre-pandemic levels. Will the fear index remain subdued all Summer, or could a return of volatility be in the cards? Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more S&P 500 UpsideLast week seemed to be one of those weeks where the market could do no wrong . After digesting the previous week’s interest rate stance changes from the Fed, the S&P 500 just kept climbing and climbing last week, reaching all-time highs once again. Weak economic data print via Flash Services PMI? No problem; market higher. Unemployment Claims printing higher than expec...
ValueWalk
Is the Fed moving too quickly? Can the equity markets handle a Fed taper without the tantrum? What about inflation? Yesterday’s FOMC statement creates more questions than answers. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Interest Rate Hike In 2023So, we now know that the Fed expects to hike interest rates in 2023. That could be ok. However, there was some contradictory language yesterday surrounding inflation. Is it transitory in the eyes of the Fed, or is it something more? Yesterday’s press conference seemed to play both sides of this coin, and stocks sold off on the uncertainty. Tha...
ValueWalk
Market participants are all waiting with bated breath ahead of today’s CPI data release. It’s an important one after last month’s shocker. So, what’s your plan? Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Achieving Longevity In TradingIn general, data releases can be fickle and tricky events. While they may provide opportunities for algorithmic traders due to short-term spats of volatility, it can be challenging to initiate or exit a position as the market digests the data upon release. Longevity in trading can be achieved by being flat around data releases (or at least not highly leverag...
ValueWalk
Thinking back to 2007 – 2008, I remember a time when the economic data just kept coming out rosy, even though I deeply suspected there was an underlying shoe to drop due to real estate and overlending. At the time, it seemed like every economic print was bullish, and the $SPX just kept climbing and climbing. It can be frustrating; when you may have the correct outlook, but just too early. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This concept is one of the most important things a trader can recognize; his or her timing. The market will dictate when you are right, and your wallet will re...
ValueWalk
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