inflation
The annual inflation rate in the UK reached the Bank of England’s (BoE) target of 2% in May, according to a report released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. This figure aligns with expectations and marks a decrease from April’s rate of 2.3%. The data highlights a significant easing in inflationary pressures, bringing some relief to consumers and policymakers alike. Key factors influencing inflation ratesThe ONS report identifies food prices as the primary factor contributing to the decline in both the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH...
Invezz
Today, the European Commission’s Eurostat data centre revealed the latest CPI inflation readings for inflation for the Euro area. The EU annual inflation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points in May 2024 to 2.7%, marking the first increase since December 2023. Previously, the April 2024 month-over-month for EU CPI was at 2.6%. For May 2024, the annual inflation rate was at 2.6%, up 0.2% from April 2024, with its reading of 2.4%. Exceeding expectationsForecasts from analysts for EU CPI month-over-month figures were broadly at 2.6% for May 2024. If this were to be the case, it would mean that the s...
Invezz
Taylor Swift’s record-shattering Eras Tour is supercharging consumer spending as it enters its U.K. leg, suggesting that the Bank of England (BoE) may face new challenges in its fight against inflation. As hundreds of thousands of dedicated Swifties flock to London in August to see the singing sensation during her final U.K. dates, the economic boost could be significant enough to defer a possible September interest rate cut, according to investment bank TD Securities. Bank of England’s dilemma: To cut or not to cut?The BoE is expected to soon begin lowering its bank rate from a 16-year high o...
Invezz
U.S. equities will likely open in the green today after the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics said inflation was up less than expected in May. What to expect from the S&P 500?Versus a year ago, the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 3.3% versus the Dow Jones estimate of 3.4%. Today’s data is a positive for the U.S. Federal Reserve that closely follows inflation to set its monetary policy. Cooler than expected CPI may push the central bank favour rate cuts at some point in 2024 which, in turn, could be a positive for the S&P 500. In fact, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects the benchmark index to hit...
Invezz
Hopes of the United Kingdom shaking its late 2023 technical recession appear to have been short-lived, after grim real gross domestic product (GDP) figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning. According to the ONS, the UK economy stalled in April, showing no growth whatsoever, showing 0% figures versus the 0.4% growth seen in March 2024. Declining production and constructionThis morning’s data also showed that production output in the UK fell by 0.9% in April 2024 following growth of 0.2% in March 2024, but grew by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024. Construction out...
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It’s been a difficult past month for the Japanese Yen, which has seen almost continuous weakening against the US dollar following the latter’s victorious bumper crop of Nonfarm Payrolls recently. As of this morning (Wednesday 12th), the USD/JPY has risen for four days in a row, nearing the $157.25 price point at the time of this article going to press. Today, so far, the USD/JPY has continued to strengthen during the Asian trading session, in anticipation of United States inflation data figures, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on US interest rates, both coming out ...
Invezz
Today, the United States’ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins meeting for its two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, after which the Fed will announce its latest decision (or lack thereof) on interest rates. The FOMC meet and its subsequent press conference is likely to be watched closely by markets and investors alike. Not so much for the possibility of a June rate cut – with the ultra-cautious, hawkish stance the Fed has taken in recent years, that would be unlikely – but more for the overall sentiment the Fed expresses about inflation and the macroeconomic environment. Depending on t...
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U.S. stocks are in focus today after the Bureau of Economic Analysis said the core personal consumption expenditures price index was in line with expectations in April. S&P 500 outlook after PCE inflation dataFor the month, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in up 0.2% down from 0.3% in March. The inflation data bodes well for the S&P 500 that Brian Belski – the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets now expects will climb further in the back half of 2024. This fits the historical pattern. If we have a very strong May then May to August or September or end of the year even, perfo...
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Grocery prices are rising at more normal levels following last year’s record surge, as new figures today showed inflation for supermarket goods was just 2.4%. According to market research firm Kantar, grocery price inflation for the four weeks to 12 May is at its lowest since October 2021. This 2.4% rate of price increases, down from 2.9% in the previous four-week period, is now less than a percentage point away from the average pace in the 10 years before prices started to accelerate in 2021. Consumer behavior shifts with easing inflationFraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at...
Invezz
Two important pieces of evidence have been published, today and yesterday, adding weight to the case that the EU will begin interest rate cuts as soon as next month. Today, the European Commission published both its latest Euro-area GDP figures, and its Spring Economic Forecast, entitled ‘A gradual expansion amid high geopolitical risks’. European Commission’s forecastIn its forecast, the commission spoke on interest rates, saying that: Expectations for imminent and decisive rate cuts across the world have been pared back in recent weeks. In the euro area, where the European Central Bank last ...
Invezz
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