interestrate
Today, the European Commission’s Eurostat data centre revealed the latest CPI inflation readings for inflation for the Euro area. The EU annual inflation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points in May 2024 to 2.7%, marking the first increase since December 2023. Previously, the April 2024 month-over-month for EU CPI was at 2.6%. For May 2024, the annual inflation rate was at 2.6%, up 0.2% from April 2024, with its reading of 2.4%. Exceeding expectationsForecasts from analysts for EU CPI month-over-month figures were broadly at 2.6% for May 2024. If this were to be the case, it would mean that the s...
Invezz
Hopes of the United Kingdom shaking its late 2023 technical recession appear to have been short-lived, after grim real gross domestic product (GDP) figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning. According to the ONS, the UK economy stalled in April, showing no growth whatsoever, showing 0% figures versus the 0.4% growth seen in March 2024. Declining production and constructionThis morning’s data also showed that production output in the UK fell by 0.9% in April 2024 following growth of 0.2% in March 2024, but grew by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024. Construction out...
Invezz
Today, the United States’ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins meeting for its two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, after which the Fed will announce its latest decision (or lack thereof) on interest rates. The FOMC meet and its subsequent press conference is likely to be watched closely by markets and investors alike. Not so much for the possibility of a June rate cut – with the ultra-cautious, hawkish stance the Fed has taken in recent years, that would be unlikely – but more for the overall sentiment the Fed expresses about inflation and the macroeconomic environment. Depending on t...
Invezz
Two important pieces of evidence have been published, today and yesterday, adding weight to the case that the EU will begin interest rate cuts as soon as next month. Today, the European Commission published both its latest Euro-area GDP figures, and its Spring Economic Forecast, entitled ‘A gradual expansion amid high geopolitical risks’. European Commission’s forecastIn its forecast, the commission spoke on interest rates, saying that: Expectations for imminent and decisive rate cuts across the world have been pared back in recent weeks. In the euro area, where the European Central Bank last ...
Invezz
Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill expressed on Tuesday that it might be “not unreasonable” for the central bank to start contemplating a reduction in interest rates over the summer if current economic trends continue. Pill’s comments came during his speech at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Regions’ Economic Summit, signaling a potentially significant shift in BoE’s monetary policy approach in the coming months. Progress on inflation but challenges remainDespite the optimistic outlook on interest rates, Pill emphasized that the Bank of England is still in t...
Invezz
This morning, the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) released better-than-expected GDP figures for the UK’s first quarterly estimate from January to March 2024. The results showed quarterly growth of 0.6% for the nation’s GDP, and year-on-year growth of 0.2%, according to the ONS: UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, following declines of 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) and 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in Quarter 1 202...
Invezz
S&P 500 is in the red at writing after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight borrowing rate unchanged again. Why did FOMC not cut interest rates today?Note that the U.S. central bank has kept interest rates in the range of 5.25% and 5.50% – the highest level in more than two decades since July of 2023. The FOMC statement attributed today’s decision to a “lack of further progress” in bringing inflation back to the 2.0% target. Rates cuts remain unlikely until members of the federal open market committee have “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”, ...
Invezz
Overwhelmingly, analysts are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady yet again, neither providing rate cuts or hikes, for May. But for how long can the Fed keep this up? And what will be the consequences? Potential consequence 1. Increasingly impatient (and thrifty) consumersThis one is fairly self-explanatory. For months, the public of the US have been promised relief from a risen cost of living in the form of interest rate cuts. And that has not manifested. Here is what David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation, says: As we’ve seen from this year’s CPI readings, and Friday’s Core PCE, inflation...
Invezz
May is set to be an exciting month for the markets, with plenty of events that will move markets in ways both predictable and unforeseen. Here are our top five pocks of what to look out for in May: 30 April to 1 May: Federal Reserve interest rate decision1 to 3 May: Google antitrust case17 May: Latest ECB inflation data22 May: Nvidia earnings29 May: South African elections30th April to 1st May: Federal Reserve interest rate decision On May 1, the world will hear the latest interest rate decision from the Fed of the United States. When (and if) interest rate cuts happen has been a key narrative...
Invezz
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