nymarkethyg
S&P 500 was driven lower by a very quick tech reversal that took communications with discritionaries along. That utilities upswing wasn‘t a good sign, and the divergence to staples and financials was stark. No matter how well formerly lagging sectors did, first the low 4,280s and then 4,271 gave. More overnight downside followed, yet when I‘d see communications with discretionaries starting to hold up, that would be as good an omen of relenting Fed as the rising unemployment claims bets indicate. Let‘s forget now hard macro data of declining same store sales, rising credit card balances, tight...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 put up only very limited resistance at 4,136, and it became clear early in the regular session that bears would be absent. Initially, HYG and XLI sputtered, and XLF was lagging behind KRE, but this and other fleeting signs of intraday weakness, I duly immediately called as flipping the daily outlook decisively bullish, calling for a break above 4,177 already yesterday. Volume overall picked up sufficiently to repeat the daily bullish call for today in the European morning as well. The housing data weren‘t poised to sink the markets, and copper with oil were highly indicative of that re...
ValueWalk
Financials continued doing relatively well – while XLF is moving up, KRE keeps lagging, which only reflects the precarious position of smaller banks, and concentration within the sector that I told you about in mid Mar already. No matter how poor ISM manufacturing PMI came (46.3), it‘ll take some time still for the Fed to relent from tightening, or alternatively for the bond market to get convinced that the Fed would still do one more 25bp hike, and then keep rates there (probably only until a truly catastrophic event strikes, but I‘m not looking for one to hit us really soon, no. Q1 2023 hedg...
ValueWalk
More of Powell testimony and job openings to reveal no immediate recession, and together with Friday‘s non-farm payrolls spurring (reconfirming) the newly elevated terminal Fed funds rate. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This translated into a fine risk-off turn yesterday with financials confirming and tech joining in the decline. There wasn‘t even a dead cat bounce in the aftermarket, and the premarket struggles go on. Summing up, dead cat bounce is unlikely to prove as anything more than a failed attempt to reassume initiative even if by some miracle Powell wouldn‘t sound as...
ValueWalk
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www....
ValueWalk
S&P 500 declined on strong core PCE data, but I doubted the opening gloom, and favored a positive move during the regular session. In spite of the disastrous market breadth (advance-decline line and advance-decline volume), Monday would bring a tired continuation of the upswing into 3,980 – 4,010s zone, overcoming which with a close near 4,045, doesn‘t look likely given what‘s in store this week. Tuesday‘s consumer confidence data are likely not to disappoint as personal savings rate had been recently revised upwards (4.7%), suggesting that the consumer still has the wiggle room to withstand i...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though been cancelled a bit too abruptly as those believing in Fed’s no / soft landing fantasies while financial conditions continue inordinately easing in the face of central bank tightening left and right. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Last week‘s PPI and naturally also the calculation changes to CPI, were a mere preview as much as this week‘s data from Sweden. Today‘s core PCE (the measure that the Fed places solid...
ValueWalk
(…) positioning for next week‘s FOMC with 25bp hike and no change in balance sheet shrinking and more hikes ahead reiteration, goes on. Buy the rumor, sell the news – and this rally of laggards (tech, crypto) is going to notice. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive ...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell. The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next wee...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 defended my 3,955 level by stopping full 10 pts above it, and turning up swiftly. The rise was accompanied by good breadth, and ducks lined in a row when it comes to former laggards (tech), high betas incl. financials and just broadly speaking value stocks, and small-caps with the dollar remaining tame. Bonds also didn‘t present any red flags. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more And with Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings really good yesterday, then GDP not decelerating nearly as fast enough as anticipated, PCE prices advancing and GDP deflator coming above expectations, the...
ValueWalk
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