stockreturns
The weird thing about Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term stock returns is that stock prices become predictable only after the passage of ten years or so. You would think that it would be easier to predict what is going to happen a month out or two months out or three months out. But it is only distant return predictions that work. What’s up with that? Getting Stock Prices RightThere are two things that investors need to get stock prices right. One, rationality. Investors need to want to get stock prices right to get them right. If their emoti...
ValueWalk
In 2020, the stock market and the economy had a very public break up. The Wall Street vs Main Street divide – the gap between America’s financial markets and the economy – was growing. By the end of the year, the S&P 500 Index closed at a record high. In contrast, 20 million Americans remained unemployed, up from 2 million at the start of the year. [soros] Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Was 2020 an outlier, or does the performance of the stock market typically diverge from the economy? In this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we show U.S. economic gro...
ValueWalk
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