The US Debt Ceiling: One Debate Is Over as Another Begins
We believe the debate about continued rate hikes is over. It’s more likely the federal funds rate will breach 5% than remain under. Macroeconomic data is ultimately leading Fed policy, and we haven’t seen enough from recent data prints that cause us to believe the Fed will change course now, particularly given the trajectory of the labor market. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The FOMC has been throwing out projections that show a higher terminal rate than is currently factored into market prices, and we think the markets should take the Fed at its word. We also expect hawkish...