waranalysis
President Volodymyr Zelensky's term in office is supposed to end on May 20, 2024 – but it won’t. As Russia’s war delayed the elections and Zelensky's term is looking indefinite, Ukraine’s President’s Office is preparing to weather the storm of critics questioning the president’s legitimacy. Officially, the administration stays away from the topic. Unofficially, its members have been warning allies for months that Russia was preparing a targeted campaign to undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy in the eyes of Ukrainians and the West. Undermining Zelensky’s legitimacy is part of Russia’s multi-compone...
Kyiv Independent
As Ukraine’s defenders and allies display a constellation of weaknesses, Russian forces are taking advantage and pushing forward in Donetsk Oblast. The Russians have begun their assault of Chasiv Yar, while a complementary, flanking assault is slowly pushing up from occupied Avdiivka, in an attempt to cut the supply road from Kramatorsk to Kostiantynivka. Chasiv Yar is the foyer of Kostiantynivka, a larger town that has served as an important Ukrainian military staging ground. “Their intention is to approach the main transit hubs and thereby render the defense of Donetsk (Oblast) systemically ...
Kyiv Independent
Over March and April, Russian airpower launched a new wave of mass attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. Energy generating facilities, in particular coal-fired and hydroelectric power plants, have come under the heaviest attacks. For the first time, Russia destroyed or damaged several of Ukraine's biggest power stations, including the Trypilska power station just outside Kyiv. This new wave of Russian attacks, exploiting the growing shortage of key air defense systems and ammunition, is forcing Ukraine to once again call for help. The situation brings up memories of the winter and early...
Kyiv Independent
As the U.S. took months to approve the next package of much-needed military aid to Kyiv, Russia used the moment to step up its offensive operations in Ukraine. After capturing Avdiivka and multiple villages in the east, Moscow now has its eyes on the next primary target, the town of Chasiv Yar. Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukrainian troops are fighting against an over 20,000 Russian grouping to defend the strategically important town. Russia has already reached the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces are set to double down their assaults to seize the...
Kyiv Independent
The first Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber was reportedly shot down by Ukraine and crashed over Russia's Stavropol Krai overnight on April 19. The aircraft wascarrying out a combat mission when a Soviet-era S-200 anti-aircraft system shot it down, an intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the aircraft crashed due to a "technical malfunction" while returning to its base. The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims. "It was a kind of vendetta for the fact that Russian strategic aviation attacked our peaceful cities today, where civil...
Kyiv Independent
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a significant milestone in Ukraine’s push to increase domestic weapons production on April 18, saying that Kyiv was on track to produce 10 Bohdana howitzers this month. The Bohdana – or the 2S22 Bohdana to give it its full title – is a self-propelled howitzer, essentially an artillery gun on a truck chassis with a 42-kilometer firing range. These types of gun give armed forces a "shoot and scoot" ability, a valuable advantage over towed artillery pieces. From the moment a towed artillery piece is fired, it is vulnerable to detection by the enemy, and movi...
Kyiv Independent
KARLSKOGA, SWEDEN –In a nondescript industrial area nestled among a forest of Swedish pine, a continent-wide effort to ramp up defense production is playing out in real time. A modest, one-story building is home to a seemingly endless ceiling-mounted rail — essentially an upside-down conveyor belt — snaking through machine halls and corridors as it carries artillery shell carcasses through the final stages of manufacturing. Not too long ago, the rhythmic clunking of the rail in motion could be heard only in normal daytime hours; now, it’s at work around the clock. This facility is a large-cali...
Kyiv Independent
Iran's massive aerial assault on Israel over the weekend felt close to home for Ukraine. In a coordinated attack involving over 120 ballistic missiles, over 30 cruise missiles, and about 170 drones, Iran sought to impair Israel's air defense capability on April 13, Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) said. The attack is said to have lasted for about five hours. This overwhelming combination of missiles and drones launched over a short period of time is a familiar tactic for Ukrainians, who have suffered from Russia's daily bombardment since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Cheap but e...
Kyiv Independent
Hitting a building, waiting for first responders and the media to arrive, and hitting the same place again to target those who came to put out the fire, help the victims, or document a potential war crime is a well-honed tool of Russia in its wars. This ruthless and illegal military tactic is called a "double-tap" attack. Having used Syria as a "testing ground" since 2015, Russia started terrorizing Ukraine with "double-tap" attacks following the full-scale invasion. Those attacks have grown more frequent in recent weeks. Russian "double-tap" attacks against Ukraine have killed and injured doz...
Kyiv Independent
Since March, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said more than once that Ukraine is expecting a major Russian offensive that could start in May or June. Ukrainian experts and military officials now say it might begin even sooner. All eyes are currently on the Bakhmut axis as Russian troops gradually inch toward the depleted town of Chasiv Yar, a mere 10 kilometers west of the occupied and largely destroyed Bakhmut. "Chasiv Yar is located on high ground. If Russia's able to take the city, they may be able to increase their rate of advance,”said U.S.-based military expert Rob Lee, a senior fellow...
Kyiv Independent
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