After a year of improvement and what-ifs, next season looks like postseason or bust for the Nebraska men's basketball coach
Keisei Tominaga's halfcourt heave at the end of Nebraska's 78-75 loss in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament last week was a perfect analogy for the 2022-23 men's basketball season.
The shot — which was on-line and hit the back of the rim — was tantalizingly close enough to make you wonder about what could have been.
But it also provided a harsh reminder of where Nebrasketball is at the end of Fred Hoiberg's fourth season: near the bottom of the league standings, one-and-done in the conference tournament, and once again sitting at home as postseason play begins.
The Huskers — and their fans — spent another season on the rollercoaster with high highs and low lows. Nebraska soundly beat #7 Creighton but were blown out by St. Johns. They swept Iowa and were destroyed twice by Illinois. NU took #1 Purdue to the brink and lost to the worst team in the conference. They overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to beat Wisconsin but lost 10 games by 15 or more points.
Make no mistake: Hoiberg earned himself another season as head coach. He proved a lot this year. He revamped his roster and style to more of a defensive, grind-it-out style. And after losing Emmanuel Bandoumel and Juwan Gary to season-ending injuries, he pivoted to a 3-point shooting offense* that turned Tominaga into a phenomenon and unearthed a hidden talent buried on his bench: son Sam Hoiberg.
*In the first 20 games of the season (through the Penn State game where Gary went down) Nebraska made less than 33.3% of their three-pointers 14 times. In those 20 games, Nebraska scored below its season average of 68 points 12 times. Remember, this includes nonconference tune-up games against Maine, Omaha and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
In the final 12 games of the season after Gary's injury, Nebraska shot better than 33.3% from deep eight times. The Huskers exceeded their season-long 68 points per game average eight times. Oh, by the way, 10 of Nebraska's final 12 games were against teams that made the NCAA or NIT tournaments.
This season contains so many "what if" questions. What if the ending of the overtime loss to #1 Purdue had been officiated correctly? What if the Huskers had capitalized on their many chances against Minnesota in the conference tourney? What if Bandoumel and Gary had managed to stay healthy for the entire season? HuskerOnline's Robin Washut pointed out that NU was 7-3 (including wins over Creighton and Iowa and the Purdue OT loss) when Bandoumel, Gary, Sam Griesel and Derrick Walker were all healthy.
But some harsh realities remain.
It took a memorable six wins in their final eight regular-season games to get Nebraska to a .500 record for the season. Several cornerstone pieces (Walker, Griesel, Bandoumel and likely Tominaga) will not return next year.
Will the returning role players be enough to finally get Fred a winning season? Gary and freshman Jamarques Lawrence performed well in the starting lineup. There are players in the regular rotation (such as Wilhelm Breidenbach and C.J. Wilcher) who need to make a developmental leap and/or find a role that plays into their strengths. Young guys like Blaise Keita, Sam Hoiberg and Denim Dawson all had games where they stood out. Can they turn that potential into consistent production? Who else - either redshirting or in the transfer portal - can give Nebraska good minutes?
It may be too early to make such a proclamation, but I'll say it anyway: I believe the 2023-24 season should have "postseason or bust" expectations for Fred Hoiberg.
Is a postseason berth too much to ask of a program that (including Tominaga) will lose 60% of its scoring, 45% of its made 3-pointers, 55% of its rebounds, and 68% of its assists? Maybe.
But I side with the critics who say it is time for Hoiberg's Huskers to make a jump ... or it is time to move on. If Nebraska cannot be - at worst - a legit bubble team in Year 5, will it ever happen?
Heck, the odds are already stacked against Fred. The remarkable Eric (@Stewmanji on Twitter) ran the numbers on Division I basketball coaches over the last 50 years. From an initial pool of 1,794 coaches to survive four seasons at the same school:
- 220 were brought back for Year 5 despite not having a winning campaign in their first four seasons.
- 36 eventually made an NCAA appearance.
- 6 were from a power conference.
Do those stats feel familiar, Husker football fans?
Hoiberg's teams have improved every year, albeit at a glacial pace. From seven wins in his first two seasons, to 10, and 16 this year. Last place in the conference in years one and two, up to 13th last year, and 11th this year.
But zero winning records in four seasons, and 0-4 in Wednesday games at the conference tournament leaves me wanting more. I don't care how historically challenged/cursed/uncared for the basketball program has been. Nebraska can be better than what it has been.
I think Hoiberg is capable of getting it done at Nebraska. I believe he has learned what works in the Big Ten - and more importantly, what does not. Now I want to see him apply those lessons and guide the program to new heights.
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