By Jessica Frank-Keyes
Well, it was quite a night.
Three by-elections, three very different constituencies, and – at face value at least – something for everyone.
If you’re catching up now, the headlines are: Rishi Sunak dodges a triple defeat, as the Tory Party held onto Uxbridge, while Labour won big in Selby and the Lib Dems took Somerton.
So far, nothing hugely unexpected.
But, while we await the appearance of Sir Ed Davey’s latest giant yellow props (Tractor? Huge stack of hay bales?) and digest the spin across the airwaves, it’s worth taking a look beneath the surface.
And, as it turns out, there are some very interesting things revealed.
However, you slice it, these are not good results for the Conservatives. In fact, it’s fair to say they are pretty dire.
Two significant losses in two different areas of the country – and holding on to a former prime minister’s seat by less than 500 votes.
Just 495 ballots cast differently and we would find ourselves in that triple defeat conversation this morning, with all the implications for the prime minister and those around him.
Words like “bleak” and “appalling” are, nonetheless, being thrown around – and I’m not just talking about my eyebags after a night on the sofa glued to Sky News.
Keir Mather – at just 25, now the Commons’ youngest MP – has done something astonishing in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, overturning a majority of more than 20,000.
While the Lib Dems, often touted specifically as by-election winning machines, have clearly recovered their mojo in the post-Brexit years.
Once ‘the’ issue of the day, no matter the realities for trade, business, farmers and passport queues, for voters looking for an alternative, its importance has, somewhat, receded.
The day after a by-election has a comforting rhythm for sleep-denied politicos.
Which means, at this point in an analysis piece, it’s time for me to remind you that all the usual caveats apply here. We can’t draw definitive conclusions about what this means for a general election.
But this mini-earthquake offers, if not a map, then something of a weather forecast. A taking of the political temperature.
And while voters may not be feverish with enthusiasm for Sir Keir – yet, his activists would stress – I doubt Conservative campaigners will feel their party is on the road to recovery.
As top pollster John Curtice puts it, “the tide is still a long way out” for the Tories. Last night will have been slim comfort.
