By Ed Culham
GROUND conditions are one of the imponderables facing punters at Goodwood today and the going will be testing should the forecast heavy rain arrive, so it looks a day to tread carefully.
Finding the winner of a competitive 16-runner Group Three Oak Tree Stakes (2.25pm) doesn’t look a task for the faint hearted and the openness of the contest is reflected in the fact it’s around 5/1 the field.
However, on the other side of the coin there could be some value to had if siding with filles and mares that are likely to handle the conditions.
Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old fillyDREAM OF LOVE has shown some of her best form on soft ground, with her short-head defeat behind subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Mawj over seven furlongs at Meydan in January an outstanding piece of form.
She again encountered a soft surface when running too badly to be true on her reappearance in the 1000 Guineas, where better was clearly expected as she was sent off the third favourite for the first fillies’ Classic of the season.
A third-place finish in the German 1000 Guineas proved that she had trained on, and last time out she looked unlucky when meeting trouble in running in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot.
I don’t think we have seen this daughter of Shamardal under her ideal conditions yet this season, and this return to softer ground coupled with a drop back to seven furlongs could be just what she needs.
She’s my main selection and looks a sound each-way bet at around 6/1.
Three-year-old fillies have a decent record against their elders in this race in recent years, winning half of the last 10 renewals, and a filly that looks to have been overlooked is MATILDA PICOTTE.
Kieran Cotter’s filly finished third in the Lowther last season and has twice run well on testing ground this campaign.
She finished an excellent third behind Mawj in the 1000 Guineas, when looking like the mile trip stretched her, while in contrast her last start in the Sandy Lane Stakes over six furlongs on fast ground probably proved too sharp.
It’s worth noting she has only had one previous start over this trip of seven furlongs, when finishing second in a Group Three at Leopardstown, and it may prove to be her optimum.
A price of 10/1 looks good value and I’ll be adding her as each-way selection, while I’ll also be keeping an eye on FAST RESPONSE who did remarkably well to finish a close second when coming from an impossible position at Chester last time.
Karl Burke’s four-year-old has plenty of good form on soft ground and should go well at 5/1.
World Pool will be in operation at Goodwood, meaning it could be worth looking to the exotic markets in tough races like this and I’ll be throwing all three fillies in a Quinella (pick the first two finishers) in the hope of a mammoth return.
There are only eight runners in the five-furlong dash for the two-year-olds, the Group Three Molecomb Stakes (3.00pm) but all hold some sort of chance and it looks a fiendishly difficult race to decipher, especially as almost all of them have yet to experience soft ground.
If I was pushed, perhaps dominant Sandown winner Kylian will have too much class for his rivals, but it’s not a race I’m keen to bet in.
POINTERS
Dream Of Love e/w 2.25pm Goodwood
Matilda Picotte e/w 2.25pm Goodwood
Dream Of Love, Matilda Picotte, Fast Response
(World Pool Quinella) 2.25pm Goodwood
