S&P 500 couldn‘t take advantage of respite in rising yields after US open as there was no reprieve. No flight to safety to Treasuries to which there‘s no deep enough alternative – yields continued on their pre-Fitch path, and 10-y closed at almost 4.10%. It‘s tech and prior sectoral leaders than need this respite badly – yet odds are neither long-dated rates nor the dollar have peaked yet, which is creating (over time) increasingly intolerable position for servicing the debt when the two nearest quarters the Treasury plans to issue almost $2T in fresh debt only (not mentioning rollovers).
Thus far, it‘s up to oil and copper to lead the risk sentiment, and for Russell 2000 to first at least not decline as much as tech, Big Tech. Industrials, materials and energy (even with financials and healthcare) aren‘t though enough to lift ES higher – a little profit taking episode / short squeeze in tech must develop alongside. If you‘re into timing reversals, the current environment is good for tight stop-losses while letting run whatever move catches fire – there won‘t be many, but upswings would be sharper.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains one more.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Not 4,592, but 4,565 are a tall order without adequate cooperation from yields – good enough for a couple of dozen points hunting. 4,515 is the support that held yesterday – and it better hold today as the next one is 4,485 area.
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