By Isolde Walters
The Conservatives face a battle between the realists and the denialists in the run-up to the next election but success in campaigning depends on being honest about your chances, writes John Oxley
There was plenty of debate on offer at this week’s Conservative Party Conference. The party faithful clashed with each other over everything from HS2 to LGBT policies – culminating in a Tory member of the London Assembly being dragged from the auditorium for voicing his discontent at the home secretary. Yet perhaps the biggest division in the conference centre was only tacitly acknowledged, the one between the realists and the denialists about the party’s future.
In hushed tones, after a few drinks, the question inevitably came out: what do you think the next election will hold? The answers were surprisingly diverse. Despite more than a year of polls with the Torys in a double-digit deficit, despite the lost by-elections that would ordinarily be won without breaking a sweat, many still think the Tories have a chance at the next election.
Their rationale is rooted more in superstition than statistics. Some just believe something will turn up, or that Downing Street will regain control of the narrative. Others point to historic election lore about narrowing leads. Many pin their hopes on economic recovery, or Starmer’s supposed lack of inspiring qualities. Some combination of this, they seem to think, will confound the polls and deliver another term. It seems, to the sceptics, almost delusional in its optimism.
For the realists, the conversation has a very different tone. Less about how comfortably the party might win, but how badly it might lose. Some talk of less than 200 seats, some of 150. The gloomiest go even lower, questioning whether the Lib Dem surge will materialise in the Blue Wall and the Tory heartlands of the Home Counties. They wonder whether recovery is a five-, ten- or fifteen-year project.
Most interesting is seeing the make-up of these tribes. Time and time again, I heard that the biggest denialists are at the top. That Number Ten truly believes it has an election to win, not a defeat to mitigate. This flows through to the party’s biggest cheerleaders, with prospective candidates talking up trips to campaign in the so-called 80/20 seats, those the Tories narrowly won or just missed out on last time. Like the dying days of a cult, the truest adherents refuse to believe what they see with their own eyes.
Those with more skin in the game have a different view. MPs and candidates for seats in the firing line if the party slumps have come to sobering realisations. Many with 10,000 vote majorities are gearing up to fight for a marginal victory, focusing on the war chest and the prep for a campaign where every vote might matter. They worry, however, that a deluded centre might let them down and pump resources into places where the party no longer stands a chance.
Negativity is generally not rewarded among the hyper-partisans who attend events like the party conference. There’s sometimes a sense that a positive attitude and hard work can overcome even the worst electoral swing. At a certain point, however, that becomes delusional and affects your decision making. In 1997, the Tories fared worse than they needed to because it took them too long to move campaign resources to where they really needed them. It could happen again.
Success in campaigning relies on being honest about your chances. If the denialists are in charge, the Tory strategy could be mismatched to reality – going after the wrong voters in the wrong places. This will make the defeat worse and the recovery harder than it needs to be. As we move towards the next general election, the battle between those who are honest about where the party sits and those who overestimate its chances could be crucial.
John Oxley is a political commentator and associate fellow at Bright Blue
