UK pay rises fast but signs that pace of increases set to slow

By Chris Dorrell

The rate of pay rises increased at a rapid pace again in the three months to August, but showed signs of easing.

According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), average wage growth excluding bonuses averaged 7.8 per cent between June and August, unchanged from last month and in line with economists’ predictions.

However, including bonuses, wage growth dropped to 8.1 per cent – a bigger than expected fall.

In the most recent reading, annual pay growth excluding bonuses averaged 7.8 per cent between May and July, the joint highest rate of pay growth since records began in 2001. Including bonuses, earnings growth came in at 8.5 per cent.

No figures on unemployment were published today. The data has been delayed to “improve the quality” of the estimates with it now due to come out next Tuesday.

The Bank of England has been persistently surprised by the strength of domestic wage growth, which it has flagged as a key indicator of inflationary persistence.

However, speaking yesterday Huw Pill suggested the ONS figures are “increasingly an outlier” in estimates for wage growth, with other surveys suggesting that pay growth is easing.

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