By Ed Culham
FOR THE thousands of fans heading to Ascot on Saturday for Qipco British Champions Day the weather forecast will fill them with a sense of dread.
From Wednesday the heavens are set to open and if the forecasters are right, it might not stop until Sunday!
Officials at Ascot are already predicting a minimum of 15-20mm of rain to fall, and with the ground already described as soft, it’s virtually certain it will be heavy come race time.
That won’t bother connections of VADREAM in the Qipco British Champions Sprint (1.50pm) as she’s a horse that comes alive when the mud is flying.
The five-year-old might have only won four times in her career, but all three on turf have been when the going has been either soft or heavy.
In fact, when Vadream has run on ground described as soft or worse, she’s only finished outside of the first three once from five starts, so conditions look ideal for Charlie Fellowes’ charge.
She absolutely hosed up on heavy ground in a Listed contest at Doncaster in April, and the only other time she encountered bad ground this season was in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket where she had a certain Live In The Dream behind in second.
That horse has obviously gone on to win the Group One Nunthorpe, so the form certainly has some substance.
She ran very well in this race last year to finish sixth behind Kinross given she fluffed the start, and produced a solid run over course and distance last time, on ground that would have been too quick, which should have left her spot on for this.
She looks a knocking each-way bet 10/1 with Paddy Power.
Speaking of Kinross, he certainly deserves a mention as, like Vadream, conditions will suit.
Granted he’s probably at his best over seven furlongs, but as his clear-cut victory in the race 12 months ago showed, he’s more than capable over six.
He was just touched off in the Prix de la Foret last time, but he’d been in fine form prior to that and is the one they all have to beat.
We’ve seen plenty of horses at bigger prices run well in this race before, and with that in mind I’m also interested in ROHAAN at 14/1.
Before his last run, his season had been a bit of a disaster, having finished no better than sixth in eight starts.
However, he bounced back to form over course and distance last time meaning he’s now five from nine at Ascot.
Interestingly, Ryan Moore, who is two from three on him at Ascot, has been booked and I could see him going very well in a race he finished fourth in last year.
In the following Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares (2.25pm), I’d advise having a second look at French raider RUE BOISSONADE.
Conditions could be really bad by this point and, based on her heavy ground win at Saint-Cloud earlier this year, that won’t bother the three-year-old at all.
She ran on in quite eye-catching fashion in the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp over 1m6f last time and she looks a stayer on the rise.
Her stamina could come to the fore here, so given we know she’ll handle the ground, quotes of 16/1 look too big if connections decide to roll the dice.
POINTERS
Vadream e/w 1.50pm Ascot (Saturday)
Rohaan e/w 1.50pm Ascot (Saturday)
Rue Boissonade e/w 2.25pm Ascot (Saturday)
