By Bill Esdaile
AFTER the glorious Californian sunshine at last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup, it’s time for some freezing wet weather back on home soil.
The pick of this week’s National Hunt racing action comes from a rain-sodden Aintree where the feature race is the Boylesports Grand Sefton Chase (2.45pm) over the famous National fences.
After what feels like weeks of rain, the going is described as ‘Heavy, Soft in places’ and the course report that there are still some areas of water logging because of the high water table.
The concern is that there is more rain to come with up to 10mm expected throughout the course of Wednesday and Thursday.
If the top end of that forecast arrives, the Grand Sefton Chase itself could be in doubt, which tells you how bad the ground might be if it does get the green light.
The obvious one looks to be last year’s runner-up, Gesskille, who already has the benefit of a run under his belt this season.
That was a on very soft ground over a bit further so conditions will hold no fears for the seven-year-old.
He lines up on Saturday off just a 5lbs higher mark than when second 12 months ago and just 1lb higher than when second to Ashtown Lad in the Becher Chase a month later.
There isn’t a horse running in the race who deserves to win one of these more than him and, if you bet with Bet365, I suggest snapping up some of the 9/2 currently available.
However, he is generally as short as 7/2 and for that reason I’d rather try and find some value elsewhere.
Fantastic Lady finished second over these fences in the Topham Chase at last season’s Grand National meeting and she seemed to love the unique challenge.
The concern for her has to be the ground as her trainer Nicky Henderson described the soft ground that day as being unsuitable, and it’s worth considering that Saturday’s ground will be far worse.
Irish raider Born By The Sea finished sixth in last year’s Grand National and has to be considered off a 3lbs lower mark.
The nine-year-old is a best-priced 8/1 and that seems a little skinny judged on a few below par runs over the last six weeks.
NASSALAM looks set for his first start of the campaign for Gary Moore and may just be the value call at 10/1 on his first start over these fences.
Catching him fresh on bad ground may just be the key to this six-year-old as he showed at Cheltenham last New Year’s Day, at Fontwell in February 2022 and at Ascot back in October 2021.
Don’t forget he was sent off a single-figure price for the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last March on the basis that he was well-handicapped off a mark of 144.
He lines up on Saturday off 142, stays further and won by 59 lengths the only time he has encountered heavy ground.
This looks the only obvious target as he is not in next Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and it’s worth taking a chance on him being a fair bit shorter come the weekend.
He will have to brush up his jumping, but Aintree is a much more forgiving jumping track these days and I can see him going close.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Nassalam e/w 2.45pm Aintree
