U.S. Republican primary in New Hampshire could decide Haley's fate

The second contest in the race for the U.S. Republican presidential nomination will take place in New Hampshire on Tuesday, with the outcome possibly determining the fate of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's candidacy as she desperately battles to catch up with Donald Trump.

The nation's first Republican primary for the November presidential election is now a two-person race between the 77-year-old former president and Haley, who has the endorsement of popular New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The primary comes two days after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his bid for the nomination and endorsed Trump.

Following a third-place finish last week in the Iowa caucuses, Haley, who turned 52 on Saturday and has called for a "new generational conservative leader," is hoping for a boost in New Hampshire to keep her campaign alive.

"Don't complain about what happens in a general election if you don't go vote tomorrow," Haley told hundreds of voters at a hotel in Salem, New Hampshire, on the eve of the primary.

"If you go to the polls tomorrow and take five people with you and you commit to getting us back on track, I will spend every single day proving that you made a good decision," she said in concluding her final pitch.

Unlike Iowa, where conservative evangelical Christians hold sway in politics, the small New England state, with a population of about 1.4 million, is known to have a large body of moderate Republicans, independents and highly educated voters.

Haley, also a former South Carolina governor, is counting on them to help her stem Trump's popularity, claiming that only she can win a general election against President Joe Biden, who is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee.

In stark contrast to the Iowa caucuses, held on a bitterly cold night that saw the lowest turnout since 2000, a record 322,000 people are expected to cast ballots in the primary, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state.

Most opinion polls have shown that around 50 percent of potential voters in the primary favor Trump, while Haley remains stuck in the mid-to-upper-30 percent range.

DeSantis, once considered Trump's top challenger, salvaged a distant second place in the Jan. 15 contest that kicked off the Republican nomination calendar. But before his withdrawal announcement on Sunday, he was polling in the single digits in New Hampshire after focusing his efforts and spending on Iowa.

A primary is akin to an ordinary election, with provisions such as allowing absentee voting, whereas a caucus resembles a community gathering that requires voters to turn out in person at a specific time and place to pick a presidential nominee.

Up for grabs in the New Hampshire primary are 22 delegate votes for the Republican Party's national convention in July. Trump's victory in Iowa has already given him 20 of the 40 delegates from the rural Midwest state.

Although the two states account for only a fraction of the total 2,429 Republican delegates nationwide, history has shown that the first contests have a huge impact on the subsequent nomination process.

Despite facing a host of legal problems, including 91 criminal charges in four separate cases, Trump could score another decisive win over Haley, greatly boosting the likelihood he will seal the nomination and head into a general election rematch against Biden.

In the days leading up to the primary, a number of former Trump rivals closed ranks behind him, including Tim Scott, the only black Republican in the Senate, who pulled out of the presidential race in November.

Scott's endorsement, announced Friday, has fueled speculation that he might become Trump's choice for running mate should the former president capture the nomination. As the influential senator is from Haley's home state of South Carolina, his decision to rally behind Trump was a particularly big blow to her.

The primary vote in South Carolina, due to take place on Feb. 24, is the next key event in the nomination calendar, and Haley is so far trailing Trump in the polls.

If Haley does not win the New Hampshire primary or run neck-and-neck with Trump, the chance of her becoming the Republican nominee is likely to be very slim.

© Kyodo News