*Written by Georgette Virgo*
People live in a world where nature weaves together beautiful and unpredictable threads. Just as the calmest seas can give rise to storms, so too can the gentlest breeze herald a devastating storm. A recent Forbes article reported that the US experiences an average of 18 billion-dollar climate disasters yearly. In 2022, 18 climate disasters caused $175.2 billion in damage and resulted in 474 fatalities. These numbers show that natural disasters occur with increasing frequency and intensity.
In the geological narrative of Earth, seemingly serene landscapes often hold evidence of past tumultuous events. In response, the government implements essential strategies to mitigate the devastating impact and substantial economic consequences.
A vital component of these efforts is advancing geophysics, a specialized branch of Earth sciences that leverages physics principles to explore and understand the Earth’s surface and interior. Within this field, numerous exceptional researchers contribute immensely to human welfare. Lili Feng, a distinguished geophysicist and machine learning expert, stands out as a pioneer in advancing our standing of the Earth’s complex systems through constructing Earth models.
With a Ph.D. in Physics specializing in integrating acoustic and audio wave signal processing, time-series data analysis, machine learning (ML) and model building, high-performance computing (HPC), and cloud computing, Feng has worked on projects that developed more precise and detailed images of the Earth’s structure. His work has been beneficial in deciphering its complex systems and predicting potential hazards.
Understanding Earth Modeling
Before diving deep into the value Earth modeling gives, providing a brief overview of what it is and how it works is essential. Earth modeling encompasses various techniques to simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring within the Earth’s interior and atmosphere. Feng asserts that these models can range from simple two-dimensional cross-sections to complex three-dimensional representations that evolve over time. They incorporate data from various sources, including satellite observations, seismic surveys, and ground-based measurements, to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s processes.
The primary goal of Earth modeling is to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth’s systems. In this light, Feng emphasizes that this is crucial for various applications, from exploring natural resources to assessing environmental impacts and, most importantly, predicting and managing natural disasters.
Mitigating Risks of Natural Disasters
One of the most remarkable applications of Earth modeling is in the study of seismic activity. Feng mentions that Earth models reveal a clear picture of the layers of its interior and how they’ve moved over millions of years, even the Earth’s tectonic plate movements. This data helps scientists like him to predict where earthquakes are likely to occur, their potential magnitude, and the probability of subsequent tsunamis.
Feng adds that Earth modeling plays a role in monitoring volcanic activities and hydrological processes essential for predicting floods and storm surges. Clearer model images allow scientists to visualize the structures within volcanoes that were previously obscured. By mapping the size, shape, and connectivity of volcanic cavities, they can better predict the pathways of magma flow, assess the potential for eruptions, and understand the dynamics that lead to volcanic activity.
Enhanced imaging techniques, including satellite imagery and hydrological modeling, provide detailed topographical maps that accurately highlight flood plains, river basins, and watershed boundaries. This information is vital for predicting how water flows and accumulates during heavy rainfall events or snowmelt seasons, enabling authorities to identify areas at risk of flooding.
For Feng, people cannot prepare for something they do not know. Improving Earth modeling techniques helps key leaders understand the Earth, its movements, and its state. Such empowers humans to anticipate changes and devise plans to temper risks or soften impacts.
Applying Concepts to Real World
To enhance the accuracy of Earth modeling for better disaster knowledge and management, Feng developed ‘SurfPy,’ a software package that advances geophysical exploration. Like a high-tech underground camera, Feng powered SurfPy with advanced statistical ML techniques, enabling it to interpret various acoustic and seismic wave data through the Earth. Once processed, these sound waves yield detailed images illuminating the hidden layers. This software created high-resolution models in diverse regions, including Alaska, Mongolia, and Spain.
Using a Bayesian Monte Carlo inference approach, SurfPy analyzed vast acoustic and seismic data that built three distinct high-resolution Earth models. These models unveiled critical geological and tectonic features in Alaska, which is crucial to understanding earthquakes and volcanoes in the region.
Similarly, in Mongolia, SurfPy constructed a high-resolution 3-D Vs model of the crust and uppermost mantle in the Khövsgöl rift. The image results for this exploration provided insights into some high-speed anomalies in the upper crust and how hot spots deep underground within the area might be causing the surface to rise.
With a vast acoustic and seismic dataset as his canvas, Feng used SurfPy to build two distinct high-resolution Earth models in Spain. These models have significantly contributed to understanding the relationship between the Earth’s surface and its landscape, revealing how subterranean changes can influence surface dynamics.
SurfPy’s advanced imaging capabilities have pushed the boundaries of geophysical research. This innovation gives decision-makers the tools to prepare for natural disasters more accurately, thus playing a crucial role in protecting communities worldwide. For geophysicists like Feng, the detailed images produced by SurfPy affirm the vast potential for discovery beneath the Earth’s surface and open doors to further exploration, deeper understanding, and development of new seismic projects.
Challenges and Future Directions
The pursuit for 100% accuracy in disaster prevention lingers as a distant dream since the inherent unpredictability of natural phenomena and the complex interplay of Earth’s systems means there is always uncertainty in predicting natural disasters. On the other hand, this underscores the importance of preparedness as the cornerstone of disaster management. Rather than aiming for the impossible task of preventing natural disasters entirely, the focus shifts towards minimizing their impact through early warning systems, community readiness, and effective response strategies.
Even in the face of these unexpected circumstances, the industry finds reassurance in the talents of individuals like Feng and definitive tools like SurfPy. Thanks to them, preparedness has turned from a mere guessing game into a fact-based science that fundamentally increases the resilience of communities around the globe.