Netflix and Showmax will dominate Sub-Saharan Africa’s SVOD market for the next 5 years

Netflix and Showmax have clearly exerted dominance in the subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) market in Africa, and both have executed widespread expansions that are paying off for both companies. According to a recent study, Netflix will remain the SVOD market leader, with 6.9 million subscribers by 2029. Showmax will be the second largest platform with 3.7 million paying subscribers, and Disney+ will only have 905,000 subscriptions by 2029 due to its roll-out being limited to South Africa.

The report highlighted that Sub-Saharan Africa will add 9 million paying SVOD subscriptions by 2029, and this increase will bring the total SVOD market to 16 million from 7 million in 2023.

The report also noted that SVOD penetration will still be low by 2029, with only 7.1% of TV households paying for at least one subscription - although this is up from 4.7% at end-2023. Despite the slow growth, South Africa and Nigeria will add 59% (9.4 million) of the region's total by 2029.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst, said: "SVOD is a battle between Netflix and regional player Showmax. Rich in local content and sports rights, Showmax now has access to NBCUniversal, Sony Pictures and HBO content. Showmax's parent MultiChoice recently rejected a takeover bid from Canal Plus."

Netflix and Showmax have led the charge, but other factors have also helped drive the overall adoption of streaming services. Improved broadband quality, increasing smart TV penetration, the availability of services and perceived value are all coming together to create the perfect conditions for growth.

Earlier this year, Amazon Prime Video revealed plans to reduce its presence in Africa and the Middle East, shifting its emphasis toward European productions. This strategic pivot signifies a complete withdrawal from the Sub-Saharan region, marking the streaming service's exit from the video-on-demand market in Africa.