First Lady Tammy Murphy is the most well-known candidate from either party in New Jersey’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race, but her main opponent in the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Andy Kim, is more popular among both Democrats and the state’s entire electorate, a new poll shows.
The Monmouth University survey, released Wednesday, is the first public poll examining both the Democratic and Republican contenders vying this year to take over for indicted Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez. The poll, which comes about three months before the June 4 primaries, did not test head-to-head matchups on either side and instead asked voters about the candidates individually.
About 8-in-10 New Jersey voters have heard of Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, according to the survey. Just under 2-in-3 know Kim, a three-term congressman running against her for the Democratic nomination in a state where Republicans haven’t won’t a U.S. Senate seat since 1972.
At the same time, all four of the top candidates in the Republican primary are unknown to most voters, the survey found.
Among Democratic voters, 24% have a favorable view of Murphy, while 13% have an unfavorable view, 50% have no opinion, and 13% say they have not heard of her. Among all voters, 14% have a positive opinion of the first lady.
By comparison, 48% have a favorable view of Kim, 2% have an unfavorable view, 24% have no opinion, and 26% say they have not heard of him. Among all voters, 28% have a positive opinion of three-term congressman.
Two other candidates running in the Democratic primary, labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina and activist Lawrence Hamm, are known to fewer than 3-in-10 Democratic voters. Campos-Medina is known by 27%, Hamm 15%.
While Murphy is aiming to become the first female U.S. senator from New Jersey, Kim has a higher rating among Democratic women, with 42% giving him favorable marks and 2% unfavorable, compared to 26% favorable and 9% unfavorable for Murphy.
Among men, Kim draws 57% favorable and 1% unfavorable marks, while Murphy is at 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable.
The survey also shows that while Kim is much better known among Democrats in South Jersey, his home region, 37% of North Jersey Democrats have a favorable view of him, compared to 22% for Murphy.
The polling institute notes that in various groups of Democratic voters, a key difference between the two candidates is the large number of voters who know Murphy but have not formed an opinion of her.
The survey comes as candidates from both parties are squaring off to earn the usually critical backing of county parties heading into the primary. Whoever wins those endorsements receives “the county line,” a controversial, only-in-New Jersey system in which party-backed contenders are bracketed together on the primary ballot, with the others listed to the side.
“Kim has more of a public record than Murphy and it shows in this early read of voter sentiment, but what this poll really tells us is that the Senate race is still an insider’s game at this point,” said Patrick Murray, the poll’s director. “The contenders are currently focused on appealing to a small group of party leaders and committee members as they try to shore up county lines. So, it’s not surprising that the vast majority of actual voters know almost nothing about the field.”
Thus, Murray said, it will be “interesting to see what happens to these opinion gaps” after the race’s official filing deadline March 25.
Menendez has not said he will run for re-election, though his approval ratings have plummeted as he faces federal corruption charges.
On the Republican side, Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner is known by 24% of the party’s voters, former TV reporter Alex Zdan 13%, developer Curtis Bashaw 12%, and former Tabernacle deputy mayor Justin Murphy (11%).
The poll also asked voters about their likelihood to vote for four different candidates in November’s general election — Democrats Murphy and Kim, and Republicans Serrano Glassner and Bashaw — if they became their party’s nominee. Kim fared the best:
- For Kim, 24% of all respondents say they’d definitely vote for him, 36% say they possibly would, and 33% said they definitely would not.
- For Murphy, 18% definitely would, 33% possibly would, and 42% definitely would not.
- For Serrano Glassner, 9% definitely would, 38% possibly would, and 42% definitely would not.
- For Bashaw, 10% definitely would, 25% possibly would, and 44% would not.
“Partisanship will play a major role in November,” Murray said. “Even with the softness in these early numbers, there are likely to be very few defections among Democrats whether Kim or Murphy is the nominee. And Republicans are just as likely to vote for whomever becomes their party’s candidate even though very few currently have any idea who is running.”
Murray noted independent voters could ultimately be the deciding factor in the race. The poll found among independent voters, 51% say they would definitely not vote for Murphy, compared to 33% for Kim, 30% for Serrano Glassner, and 30% for Bashaw.
“This is an area where Murphy is starting off at a relative disadvantage,” Murray said. “Kim may have slightly more support than other candidates at this point, but little of it is locked in. What looks like positive opinion today could evaporate while negatives can be turned around once voters actually start paying attention in the fall.”
Meanwhile, the election comes as Democrats hold a slim margin of control in the Senate. The poll found just under 1 in 4 New Jersey voters (23%) say party control will be the most important factor in determining their support in November. That number is similar among Democrats (27%), Republicans (24%), and independents (19%).
The survey was conducted via phone from Feb. 29-March 4 among 757 registered New Jersey voters. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 4.3 percentage points.
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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X at @johnsb01.
