By Vivek Kumar
Moving markets today: Asian shares surge on strong China data, oil prices rally amid geopolitical tensions, Vladimir Putin wins 88 per cent of votes, central bankers in spotlight this week
Asian stock markets saw gains as better-than-expected economic data from China provided a positive surprise, while investors geared up for a busy week of central bank meetings. These meetings could signal shifts in monetary policy, such as the possibility of Japan moving away from its current stance of loose monetary policy and the U.S. Federal Reserve taking a more gradual approach to interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin secured a landslide victory with 88% of the vote in an election where opposition candidates were not allowed to participate. Additionally, China’s industrial output and retail sales figures for January and February surpassed expectations. The week ahead will be dominated by central bank decisions, including those in China, Australia, the U.K., Indonesia, Taiwan, Switzerland, and Norway, with investors closely watching for any policy changes or indications of future moves. Here are five key takeaways for your day.
Vladimir Putin sweeps election with 88 per cent victory
Vladimir Putin is anticipated to win Russia’s presidential election, securing his rule for another six years despite ongoing controversies such as the Ukraine invasion and suppression of dissent. Preliminary results released on Sunday suggest that Putin is set to be re-elected with approximately 88 per cent of the vote and a turnout exceeding 70 per cent, according to the Russian electoral commission with 25 per cent of the votes counted, as reported by the FT.
This outcome, including data from five Ukrainian regions under Russian occupation, was widely expected following the Kremlin’s ban on criticism of Putin and the war, and the exclusion of opposition candidates from the race.
China’s industrial output and retail sales exceed forecasts for January-February
China’s industrial sector has surpassed market expectations, providing a welcome boost for policymakers grappling with a prolonged slowdown in the country’s property market, which has been weighing on its economy. Official figures indicate a robust 7 per cent growth in industrial production during January and February, marking the sector’s strongest performance in two years.
However, challenges persist in the property market, with investment shrinking by 9 per cent year-on-year during the same period, and new construction starts plunging by 30 per cent. China’s economy continues to face deflationary pressures, subdued consumer confidence, and financial strains affecting major property developers nationwide.
UK home asking prices surge to 10-month high: Rightmove
A recent survey conducted by property website Rightmove revealed that the prices of homes listed for sale in Britain have seen their most significant increase in nearly a year. This boost in prices indicates a growing confidence among sellers, which has been fuelled by the ongoing recovery in the housing market.
Notably, demand for homes in London has shown a substantial increase. Over the four weeks leading up to March 9, the asking prices for residential properties rose by 1.5 per cent, marking the strongest such increase in the past ten months. Despite this rise, prices still lagged approximately £5,000 behind their peak in May 2023. Compared to the same period last year, prices were also up by 0.8 per cent, Reuters reported.
Ahead this week: events to keep an eye on
The primary focus will be on key central banks like the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, with updates also expected from various other countries including China, Australia, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, Taiwan, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico, the FT reported.
While it’s widely predicted that the Fed will maintain interest rates during its March 19-20 meeting, investors will closely scrutinize Chair Powell’s remarks and the Fed’s dot-plot, which outlines the expected future path of interest rates.
The Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Tuesday is also of significant interest, with increasing optimism that the central bank may be considering a departure from its long-standing policy of negative interest rates.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates steady at 5.25 per cent next Thursday, with market expectations indicating a slower pace of rate cuts compared to the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve throughout the year.
Aside from central bank actions, economic data releases will be abundant, including UK inflation figures, purchasing managers’ index data from G7 nations and India, as well as US home sales statistics.
Asia remains resilient, Japanese stocks ascend ahead of BoJ rate call
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index bounced back by 2.1 per cent, recuperating from a 2.4 per cent dip observed the previous week, as investors took profits amidst a surge towards record highs. In China, the CSI300 blue-chip index strengthened marginally by 0.45 per cent. Futures for EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE remained relatively stable. S&P 500 futures edged up by 0.2 per cent, and Nasdaq futures by 0.36 per cent, with attention focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. The Topix, Japan’s benchmark index, kicked off the day with a 1.51 per cent rise in early trading.
However, the US dollar’s ascent and rising bond yields dampened the allure of gold, which hovered around $2,147 per ounce, marking a 1 per cent decline from the previous week’s levels. Meanwhile, oil prices showed signs of improvement after the International Energy Agency raised its outlook for 2024 oil demand. Yet, concerns persisted over the supply outlook due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Brent crude rose by 30 cents to $85.64 per barrel, while U.S. crude climbed by 32 cents to $81.36 per barrel.
