Two new opinion polls released on Tuesday show the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the strongest party in the state of Thuringia, five months before elections are held there.
However, one survey found that the AfD had not gained any ground, and the other that it's level of support had actually declined.
The surveys also show that support for the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht alliance party (BSW) stands at between 13% and 15%. The populist party combines left–wing social policy with an anti-immigrant stance and criticism of the European Union. It has yet to be tested at the ballot box.
The polls suggest that forming a coalition government in the state is likely to prove very difficult. The new state parliament will be elected on September 1.
In an Insa poll commissioned by Funke Medien Thüringen, state Premier Bodo Ramelow's Left Party has 18%, while a poll conducted by infratest dimap on behalf of the public broadcaster MDR found its support stood at 16%.
Both institutes agree that the AfD currently remains the strongest political force in Thuringia. The party, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by Thuringia's domestic intelligence office currently has 29% support according to the MDR poll - 5% less than in the last survey in July 2023.
However the Insa poll places the AfD unchanged at 31%. It found the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) had increased their standing slightly since a survey conducted in January to 21%.
Both surveys suggest Ramelow's current governing alliance of the Left, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens is far short of a majority. With 6% for the SPD and 5% for the Greens, the two partners are in danger of dropping out of the parliament - parties in Germany need to secure a minimum of 5% of the vote to secure parliamentary representation.
According to Insa, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) are polling at just 2%, so they would no longer be represented in the state parliament. This means that the combination of CDU, SPD and FDP favoured by the CDU would have no chance of forming a coalition.
According to the MDR-Thüringentrend, the CDU would be the second strongest force with 20%, down one percentage point from a July survey, followed by Ramelow's Left Party with 16%, a drop of four percentage points.
This poll, which showed BWE at 15%, means this new party would overtake the SPD, which would land on 9%. The Greens would make it into the state parliament with an unchanged 5%, but the FDP would no longer be represented there, securing less than 3%.
Ramelow is currently governing in Thuringia with an alliance of the Left, SPD and Greens, but the three partners do not have their own majority in parliament and they don't have another party that is willing to back them. Such a minority government is unique in Germany.
According to the infratest dimap survey, satisfaction with the state government has declined, with only 35% of those surveyed currently satisfied.
This is two percentage points less than eight months previously, and is the worst figure infratest dimap has ever recorded for the current coalition. However Ramelow himself is well liked. If he could be directly elected, Ramelow would remain in office with 44% support.
For the Thuringia trend, infratest dimap surveyed a representative sample of 1,182 Thuringians by telephone (694) and online (488) between March 14 and 18.
Insa surveyed 1,000 Thuringians aged 18 and over in the period from March 11 to 18. The institute specifies a statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
