A supercomputer has taken a look at Derby County’s League One promotion picture to predict the final outcome for the season.
Derby County face a nervous race to the finish in their hopes of landing promotion from League One this season. The Rams have put themselves firmly in the driving seat for an automatic position, following victory over rivals Bolton.
The statement win in front of a packed out Pride Park ensured a four-point gap on their rivals with seven games to go. With so few matches, there has naturally been some mapping out of the path ahead and how that impacts proceedings.
READ MORE: Derby County’s next five fixtures compared to League One rivals after huge Bolton victory
Paul Warne‘s side kick off with a match against Northampton Town next, while the likes of Portsmouth, Blackpool and Wycombe Wanderers lurk in the distance. It means that, while Derby have a cushion to the rest, the race for the top is far from over.
League One supercomputer
With such a hard fought battle for second on the cards, many will take towards a supercomputer to see how it predicts the final outcome. According to Opta Analyst, their supercomputer runs 10,000 season simulations from the exact point of each week.
Following some big clashes in the league, Portsmouth saw their chances of promotion rise to 93.4%, with nine points currently separating them from third. Big games against Derby, Bolton and Barnsley await that could turn the tide though.
As for the Rams, the supercomputer has given them a 73.3% chance of promotion from this point in the season. That is an increase of 21.3% from the previous week, due to the gap built over third from victory against Bolton.
Bolton are given a 15.9% chance of promotion, while Peterborough have 13.1% and Barnsley have 4.3%. In all though, it is tough to tell exactly where these teams could end up at the end of the campaign, due to the unpredictability of the division.
While plenty of teams have tough games ahead of them, there could be a huge impact on when they play against their opposition and the type of form and momentum that generates.
League One promotion
It’s key that, with just a few weeks of the season remaining, consistency is built towards reaching those final games. Derby can kickstart another run of form when they face Northampton Town at Sixfields Stadium next.
The Cobblers are in mid-table and without a win in five games, something the Rams will be looking to take advantage of. It’s a match with increased importance due to their rivals not playing either, allowing Warne to add more points to the board before anyone else, moving the pressure elsewhere yet again.
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