The risk of renewed warfare is perceived as the most serious threat confronting the Caucasus, according to an opinion survey issued by the World Economic Forum.
The survey is based on responses from academics, government officials and entrepreneurs around the world and attempts to gauge what residents in various regions see as the biggest threats in coming years to stability. Respondents were asked to rank a wide variety potential political, economic and other risks.
Given the Caucasus’ recent history of conflict, including the Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh, the legacy of the Georgian-Russian war of 2008 and the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is not a surprise that people from the region participating in the survey are worried most by the prospect of further fighting, and its consequences. Respondents in both Armenia and Georgia listed “involuntary migration” in addition to “interstate conflict” among their top five perceived threats. Georgians also listed “the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons” as a Top 5 concern.
In addition to a resumption of conflict, Armenians are worried mainly about the country’s economic future, the WEF survey found. “Labor shortage,” “geoeconomic confrontation” and “economic downturn,” rounded out the Top 5 of Armenian fears about the near future. Meanwhile, Georgians listed “cybercrime” and “energy supply shortage” as their other Top 5 concerns. Azerbaijan did not participate in the survey.
The survey showed that “illicit economic activity” is not something that Caucasus respondents get worked up about, even though grand corruption and the lack of transparency across the region are routinely identified as major impediments to the development of stable, law-governed societies. Georgia experienced one of the biggest year-on-year declines of any Eurasian state in the watchdog group Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2023.
Similarly, respondents in the Caucasus do not seem overly concerned about the viral spread of mis- and disinformation.
Broadly speaking, the WEF survey foresees a perilous next few years. “Underlying geopolitical tensions combined with the eruption of active hostilities in multiple regions is contributing to an unstable global order,” the forum’s managing director, Saadia Zahidi, wrote in the preface.
“Over the longer-term, technological advances, including in generative AI, will enable a range of non-state and state actors to access a superhuman breadth of knowledge to conceptualize and develop new tools of disruption and conflict, from malware to biological weapons,” the report added.
