Experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have confirmed that Russia has made territorial gains in its war against Ukraine.
The Russian armed forces have captured an area of 505 square kilometres since the beginning of the offensive operations in October, the ISW reported in its latest analysis, published on Thursday.
Ukraine is still preventing Russia from making major tactical gains along the entire front line, the ISW says. However it warns that Russia's "opportunities to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities will widen as materiel shortages persist and as Ukraine continues to grapple with how to address manpower challenges."
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned of a possible new major Russian offensive in early summer. The ISW believes Russia will maintain its current offensive tempo despite difficult weather conditions.
Ukraine, on the other hand, will be forced to concentrate its limited resources at critical points on the front. This increases the risk that the Russian army could break through the defence line at less well-protected sections. That could lead to significant successes for the Russian side in the future.
The ISW experts emphasize the importance of Western help in stopping the Russian advance. They also point out that the Ukrainian air defence shield was becoming weaker and weaker.
Zelensky had repeatedly called for more US Patriot air defence systems in order to better protect the airspace. According to the ISW analysis, a further weakening of the air defence system would not only endanger bases and logistics objects in the Ukrainian hinterland that are important for the war, but would also enable more Russian air strikes with glide bombs along the front.