Southampton saw their automatic promotion hopes dashed over the Easter weekend, as Friday’s draw with Middlesbrough was followed up with a 3-2 defeat at Ipswich on Monday evening.
Realistically, Russell Martin‘s side needed to win both encounters to maintain hope of a top two finish, but by dropping five points in four days the Saints find themselves 12 points off Leeds United in second with eight games remaining.
Southampton do have two games in hand over Ipswich Town and Leeds in the automatic places, but it would take nothing short of a miracle for their season to end in any way other than the play-offs.
Martin was left incredibly frustrated by the loss at Ipswich on Monday given that the south coast club were the better side for much of the contest and took a 2-1 lead into half-time. However, a late collapse aided by James Bree‘s red card meant it was an all too familiar feeling of an opportunity missed.
It is not just this weekend in isolation that is the reason Southampton are left with so much ground to make up in the last part of the campaign though, and a worrying statistic has emerged which does not reflect well on a key individual.
Gavin Bazunu statistically worst goalkeeper in the Championship
There were question marks over Southampton stopper Gavin Bazunu for Ipswich’s first goal in the clash at Portman Road.
The 13th minute strike from Leif Davis was hit with real venom, but the angle was against the Ipswich full-back and yet he somehow managed to squeeze the shot into Bazunu’s near post. The second and third the Irish goalkeeper could not do too much about as they were struck so quickly, but neither finish was right in the corner.
Unfortunately for Bazunu and Southampton, this was not the first time his ability to keep the ball out of his goal has come under criticism. Whilst his age must be taken into consideration at just 22, the former Manchester City ‘keeper is prone to errors which have been very costly for his side.
According to FBREF, Bazunu is statically the worst stopper of any of the 46 goalkeepers who have played a Championship game this season.
When comparing the number of goals conceded to the number of goals expected from the shots faced (xGC), Bazunu has let in 11.1 more goals than would be anticipated based on the quality of attempts. The next worst is Hull City’s Ryan Allsop, having conceded 8.5 goals more than he statistically should have.
This is clearly an issue. The fourth best team in the league in terms of league position simply should not have the worst goalkeeper in the league when it comes to stopping his side conceding. For context, the first-choice goalkeepers for Ipswich, Leeds and Leicester City all reside in the top 14 in this metric.
Worryingly, this is not an anomaly. In Bazunu’s debut season for Southampton in the Premier League last campaign, the 22-cap Ireland international ranked the worst of any goalkeeper to play eight or more top flight games, conceding 16.6 more goals than he would have been expected to.
Should Southampton replace Bazunu in the summer?
To perform the worst in his respective league for two consecutive seasons is a really concerning statistic regardless of age and experience.
The Saints finished comfortably bottom of the Premier League last season and you could argue it was not the right environment for a goalkeeper so young to make his first forays into top level senior football, but the stats still make for grim reading.
Martin was vehement in his backing of his goalkeeper in a fan forum at the start of the season, responding to a question on Bazunu’s place in the team by saying: “Last season has happened, you can’t impact that. What he can impact is that he’ll be one of the best goalkeepers in the division for how we want to play. If I was going to look at a goalkeeper I’d want to go and sign Gavin Bazunu”.
Bazunu’s passing ability and confidence on the ball is crucial for how the Southampton boss wants his side to play. Ultimately, though, a goalkeeper’s primary job remains to keep the ball out of his goal and Saints’ stopper is not doing that to a satisfactory level.
When assessing the FBREF data for Championship goalkeepers this season, it can be seen that Bazunu ranks third for passes attempted (1,604) and has the highest average distance of defensive actions from his goal-line, with his 19.5 yards highlighting his role as a sweeper.
Whilst his ability on the ball should not be overlooked, it is perhaps time for Southampton to cut their losses on the man they spent £12 million to bring to the club and look for a goalkeeper who is equally as good with his feet but far more proficient at shot-stopping.
Southampton’s current back-up goalkeepers are Joe Lumley and Alex McCarthy, neither of which are providing any real competition for Bazunu’s spot. McCarthy is anticipated to leave the club this summer, whilst Lumley was only ever intended to be a second or third choice when he joined as a free agent in the summer.
It may also be the case that bringing in a goalkeeper to provide real competition for Bazunu’s shirt brings out the best in the youngster and it is certainly an option Southampton should explore this summer.
There may already be a solution at the club, though. Polish goalkeeper Mateusz Lis is impressing out on loan at Southampton’s sister club Göztepe in Turkey and Martin may consider giving the 27-year-old a chance to stake his claim for the number one shirt at his parent club in pre-season.
Whilst it may seem harsh to drop Bazunu, he cannot expect to carry on as undisputed first choice at a club with Southampton’s ambitions unless he improves.