By City AM reporter
Rishi Sunak is on course to suffer a general election defeat similar to the Conservatives’ 1997 blowout, while Labour would win a landslide, pollsters have found.
The latest YouGov polling has found Labour would win 403 seats from across the UK, leading to a 154-seat majority in the House of Commons.
The Conservatives would win just 155 seats, down from the 365 seats they won at the 2019 general election.
The analysis, which uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling, found that prominent Tory figures including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
According to the pollsters, Rishi Sunak is heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 election defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.
Sir Keir Starmer is, meanwhile, on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair’s in his first term of office.
In 1997, the party’s longest-serving prime minister won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.
Other big Tory figures at risk of losing their seats include cabinet members Michelle Donelan, science and technology secretary, and Welsh secretary David TC Davies.
The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed between March 7-27.
The Reform Party, led by Richard Tice, was found to have a growing share of the voting intention by YouGov.
While it places second in 36 constituencies, it is not predicted to win any seats.
The Lib Dems meanwhile are on course to grow their parliamentary comeback, with a projected win of 49 seats.
YouGov estimates that Labour will be the largest party in Scotland, projected to win 28 Scottish seats, followed by the SNP with 19 and the Lib Dems and Tories on five each.
The Green Party would continue to hold Brighton Pavilion, according to the polling. The seat is currently held by Caroline Lucas, who is standing down at the election.
The party is also a close second to Labour in the newly created Bristol Central seat.
Press Association – David Lynch
