MOSCOW – The consequences of the March 22 attack on a concert venue near Moscow, Russia's deadliest attack in two decades, are likely to be extensive and far-reaching, experts warn.
The Crocus City Hall attack, which saw at least 144 people killed, risks escalating already existing tensions in Russian society, leading to more government and law enforcement repression and an increase in anti-migrant violence and xenophobia.
And as Russia enters its third year of its war in Ukraine, the attack — claimed by Islamic State (IS) jihadists but blamed by Russian authorities on Kyiv and “its allies” — could worsen relations with the West or lead to an escalation in the war.
Rise in anti-West sentiment
Top Russian officials have accused Ukraine and its Western allies of being partly responsible for the attack despite the fact that IS has claimed responsibility and Kyiv strongly denies any involvement.
The U.S. had also warned Russian officials in advance that Crocus City Hall was a potential target for a terrorist attack, The Washington Post reported, citing U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), said that Moscow did receive a warning from the American authorities about a possible terrorist attack but claimed the information was not specific.
Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev, an influential hawk in Putin’s inner circle, said that “traces lead to the Ukrainian special services,” adding that “everyone is well aware that the Kyiv regime is not independent and is completely controlled by the United States.”
The accusations appear to be resonating with some Russians.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that “around 16,000 citizens” have signed up to fight as contract soldiers in Ukraine over the past 10 days alone, with “most candidates” claiming they were motivated to “avenge those killed” at Crocus City Hall.
In the days following the attack, hundreds of people stood in long lines at several Moscow hospitals to donate blood to the wounded.
At least three people who came to donate blood told The Moscow Times they believe in the aftermath of the attack “it is important to show strength and unity.”
One Muscovite added that "the country should unite in its war against the enemy," without specifying who the enemy is.
‘Normalization’ of torture
Following the tragedy, the Russian government faced widespread pressure to respond decisively.
Four suspected shooters were quickly arrested following the attack along with several suspected accomplices.
A day after the attack, the men accused of killing more than 140 people appeared in a Moscow court with visible bruises and other injuries that human rights activists said were clear evidence of torture.
One of the suspects was seen being wheeled into court on a gurney, accompanied by a doctor and reportedly unconscious. Another was seen in court with a bandage where his ear should be after an unverified graphic video showed what appeared to be law enforcement agents cutting off his ear after he was detained.
The Crew Against Torture, a prominent human rights NGO that monitors cases of torture in Russia and provides support to victims, when asked what the suspects' treatment means for Russia, warned that such treatment of suspects could “normalize” violence in Russia’s society.
“We witnessed one of the most large-scale and brutal attacks in the last 20 years and witnessed one of the most blatant tortures that followed this attack,” said lawyer and Crew Against Torture head Sergei Babinets.
“The message [to society] is that you can behave cruelly and inhumanely with such people, without even fully understanding whether they are guilty or not guilty and what role they played,” Babinets told The Moscow Times. “Instead of a proper investigation, they were subjected to violence.”
He warned that brutalizing suspected criminals sets a precedent that puts people suspected of less serious crimes at risk of the same treatment.
“This could lead to a dangerous precedent where law enforcement and security forces may adopt similar tactics in investigating other types of offenses," he said.
Death penalty returns to public debate
Following the attack, several public figures and officials have reopened the debate about capital punishment and whether it is possible to execute the suspects.
Their comments led critics to warn of potential unforeseen outcomes — such as cases of miscarriage of justice — given Russia's already liberal application of counterterrorism legislation.
The death penalty is legal in Russia but has been halted since a moratorium that was confirmed by the Constitutional Court in 1999.
Shortly after the Crocus City Hall attack, former President Dmitry Medvedev, who has become one of the most hawkish voices amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, said that the suspects “should be killed.”
“Should we kill them? We should. And we will,” he said. “But it is much more important to kill everyone involved. Everyone. Who paid, who sympathized, who helped. Kill them all.”
Ex-presidential candidate Leonid Slutsky, the head of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), also called for lifting the moratorium on the death penalty at a plenary meeting in the State Duma.
Other officials have called for restraint, however. Lawmaker Pavel Krasheninnikov said that a decision with such wide-reaching consequences “must be made with a cool head” and not at a time when “emotions prevail.”
The Kremlin said it would not take part in the discussion lifting the moratorium on the death penalty.
According to a survey conducted in 2022, 43% of respondents approved of the use of capital punishment in Russia.
At least two people who came to lay flowers at the makeshift Crocus City memorial told The Moscow Times that the death penalty could be an “appropriate” punishment if approved by the government.
Fears of rising xenophobia
Anti-immigrant sentiment appears to be on the rise following the attack in which the four suspects — all identified as citizens of Tajikistan — started mass shooting and set the venue on fire.
The Civic Assistance Committee, an NGO that assists refugees and migrants in Russia, told The Moscow Times that some migrants “are scared to [leave the house] to go to school.”
After the suspects' identities were published, reports emerged of security services conducting widespread raids on migrant communities nationwide.
In Russia’s second-largest city of St. Petersburg, authorities have been deporting migrants en masse following the attack, the legal rights group Perviy Otdel said.
In Yekaterinburg, local media reported that migrants who obtained Russian citizenship and went to replace their driver's license with a Russian one — as is legally required — were handed summonses to the military registration and enlistment office.
Russian officials were also considering the establishment of a new department tasked with overseeing interethnic and migration policies, the Vedomosti business daily reported, citing three sources close to the presidential administration and two sources close to the government.
Russia’s Interior Ministry also submitted a draft federal law to the government that would limit temporary stays for foreigners in Russia to a maximum of 90 days per year.
The proposed law would also mandate all foreign citizens to be photographed and provide their fingerprints upon entering the country.
