Veteran conservative consultant/strategist Stuart Stevens has predicted that the 2024 presidential election will swing in President Joe Biden's direction in a major way as November draws closer. But so far, polls are showing a very close nailbiter of a race.
Some nationwide polls released in early April have showed Biden with narrow leads of 2 percent (Morning Consult and NPR/PBS/Marist), but an Emerson College poll released on April 4 finds GOP nominee Donald Trump ahead of Biden by 1 percent.
One area where Biden has had a clear advantage over Trump is fundraising.
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In an article published on April 5, the Daily Beast's Jake Lahut reports that publicly, Trump's allies are dismissive of reports of Biden's fundraising advantage. But privately, some Republicans are worried.
"In conversations with current and former Trump operatives about a number of the structural disadvantages Trump is facing in the early stages of the general election campaign," Lahut explains, "most said these problems just won't matter. Simply put, Trumpworld looks at the polls in swing states — as well as polling that shows concerns about the economy and immigration as chief issues in the 2024 campaign — and operatives believe the former president is in a resiliently good place, no matter his legal or financial woes. Of course, these Republicans did acknowledge some warning signs — at least privately."
A Republican strategist, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told the Beast that "the fact that Trump is in dire need of money is a massive, massive disadvantage."
"The scope of Trump's money problem is its own challenge," Lahut reports. "If Trump were behind just a few million dollars, after having to spend in the GOP primary, that would be one thing. But this strategist continued that getting outraised by 'orders of magnitude,' after a relatively quiet primary, is a real concern."
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Lahut adds, "President Joe Biden entered March with $71 million in cash on hand, twice as much as Trump's campaign. But the advantage is even bigger when accounting for the party coffers and joint fundraising committees, with March's numbers yet to become public."
According to the GOP strategist, this fundraising shortage could mean fewer MAGA rallies for Trump.
The Republican told the Beast, "They're not gonna have enough money to do as many as he wants or at the scale he wants. It's gonna be a massive problem…. This is gonna come to a head, because we all know Trump loves these massive rallies. And frankly, they cheer him up."
Like Never Trump conservative Stevens, Democratic strategist Josh Schwerin predicts that support for Biden will grow as voters get a closer look at the two candidates.
Schwerin told the Beast, "This is the period where voters are starting to tune into the race and look at the choice in the race. And what they're gonna see is Joe Biden traveling around the country delivering for the American people, talking about polices and talking about accomplishments. Conversely, Donald Trump is going to be bouncing between courtrooms and billionaire fundraisers because he needs to pay for his court bills."
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Read the Daily Beast's full report at this link (subscription required).