Nigel Farage will decide his political future in a few weeks’ time... here's what I think he will do - analysis by Christopher Hope

What is Nigel Farage up to? No longer a politician, the former Ukip leader and now full-time GB News presenter threw a glitzy party to celebrate his 60th birthday at Boisdale's restaurant in Canary Wharf on Wednesday night.

Friends and colleagues from this time working in the City, the UK Independence Party, the Brexit Party and GB News gathered to toast Farage. Even former US President Donald Trump sent a TV message.

It felt like the moment for a personal announcement. Farage knew it too. In a strangely confessional, 'thinking-out-loud' type of speech, Farage set out the choices open to him as he enters his seventh decade.

"Life at 60 is pretty good," he told 350 guests. "I am reasonably fit enough, I have a job that I enjoy, I have got many other things that I am able to do, I have got an income that I have not had for over 30 years.

Nigel Farage

"But I do face a series of options. Do I stick with this comfortable life, part of a broadcasting channel which is bringing a revolution in British broadcasting?"Warming to his theme, he turned to Trump. He said: "I could go to America because a very good friend of mine is about to become the 47th President of the United States of America. America is very tempting. I could get jobs there and make loads of money."

Then it was back to the UK. "Or, I could throw it all away, start again, throw myself back into the frontline of British politics. These are all options."
Not for the first time - Farage kept his audience guessing. "I thought that maybe on my 60th birthday party to make a big announcement. May be it was the right moment to do it," he said. "But then I thought - why spoil a lovely booze up," he said.

"So on this 60th birthday I have to tell you that I genuinely have not yet made up my mind. I am beginning to form in my mind what I think the right thing to do is. And I will say what I am going to do over the course of the next few weeks."

By the end of this month - or the middle of the next - Farage faces a choice: stick with his presenting role at GB News, combine that with campaigning for Donald Trump's presidential campaign, or fire up the engines on his UK political career.

All three are attractive. GB News gives Farage a nightly platform, to engage with a loyal audience which clearly loves him. He speaks, without an autocue, without a script, interviewing politicians from left or right.

But America is equally tantalising for him. There are rumours that Trump - if he wins - will make Farage his conduit for the special relationship, in recognition of the fact that UK establishment will never make him UK ambassador to Washington.

And thirdly there is always Farage's unfinished business in British politics and notably with the Conservative Party. Tory MPs have told me that Farage feels badly treated by Conservative Central Office after he stood down hundreds of Brexit Party candidates at the 2019 election, to help the Tories to their electoral landslide.

The stars might to be aligning for him to return to the UK political frontline - many MPs and Tory activists on the Right of a weakening Tory party desperate to be able to support a politician who they view as authentically right wing - but Farage himself has to work out if he actually still wants to be a MP (he tried and failed seven times to be elected to Parliament).

Does he have the time and patience to deal with the everyday mundane struggles of constituents, when he can pick up the phone to his friend Donald in Mar a Lago (or the White House)? Farage is aware of this. "I could throw myself back into financial penury, constant attack by the media, social media, no thanks for anything I do, even when I stand down in favour of 320 candidates from what was once known as the Conservative party," he said on Wednesday.

But if he does not stand, he could lose a unique opportunity as a MP to shape the future of the Right in this country, with the polls suggesting the Tory party will be a shadow of itself after an expected Labour win at the general election.

He will want to be in the House of Commons to shape a new voice for the Right. And a poll commissioned by former Ukip donor Arron Banks suggested the best chance he would have as a Reform UK candidate would be in Clacton. And Wednesday’s party – described by one supporter as “getting the band back together” – shows that he will have enough support to make a good fist of it.

For now, Farage is keeping his counsel. And until recently I always thought Farage would resist the siren calls to return to the front line of UK politics. Not any more. The Tories’ travails in the polls, ahead of what could be a disastrous local elections on May could be the clincher. Farage sounds like he is on the way back to the frontline of UK politics. We will know in a few weeks’ time if I am right.