A supercomputer has now predicted Derby County’s chance of winning promotion automatically this season.
Derby County can afford to sit back and watch the rest of the action unfold this weekend as the League One promotion race promises to deliver box office drama till the end.
As Wycombe Wanderers play Peterborough in the EFL Trophy final, the Rams are next in action on Wednesday against the Chair Boys, offering Paul Warne‘s men some much-needed respite from a busy schedule.
Derby have placed themselves firmly in the driving seat to win promotion to the Championship, establishing a four-point gap on third-place Bolton Wanderers, as Ian Evatt’s side look to close that margin to just a point today.
With more nail-biting drama set to unfold this afternoon and so few matches in the season, there has naturally been a mapping out of the path ahead and how recent results have impacted proceedings.
While Warne’s side have promotion to the second tier in their grasp, Bolton, Barnsley and Peterborough lurk in the distance. It means the Rams can ill afford to rest on their laurels despite not playing this weekend.
League One supercomputer
It promises to be the most dramatic ending to a League One season in recent memory as four clubs battle for second while Portsmouth enjoy some breathing space at the top.
To determine each team’s probability of winning promotion to the Championship, we’ve looked at a supercomputer to predict the outcome. According to Opta Analyst, their supercomputer runs 10,000 season simulations from the exact point of each week.
Portsmouth have only lost four times in 41 matches this term and following a 14-match unbeaten run, which included a draw against Derby County on Tuesday, Pompey’s chances of finishing in the top two have increased from 93.4% (March 18) to 98.8% (April 3).
Holding a four-point lead over Derby, John Mousinho’s men look destined to make their long-awaited return to the second tier, and the Rams are still considered likely to join them, although unable to improve on their previous likelihood of 73.3% over the Easter period.
As for the chasing pack, Bolton’s chances of gatecrashing second place have increased from 15.9% to 20.6% following a goalless draw to Stevenage and a 5-2 thumping of Reading.
The two outsiders for promotion, Peterborough United and Barnsley, meanwhile, have seen their chances decrease from 13.1% and 4.3% to 6.3% and 1.1% respectively.
Derby County fixtures
Derby can watch the action unfold this weekend and they’ll be praying for Bolton and Barnsley dropping points to relieve some of the pressure.
The Rams still have to play Wycombe, Leyton Orient, Cambridge United and Carlisle United; all winnable fixtures on paper, but the hardest part in any campaign is getting over the finish line.
Warne’s men have raced into pole position ahead of the chasing pack, and while they’ve put themselves in a strong spot, Bolton, Barnsley and Peterborough will be there to pounce on any mistakes.
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