For months, New York Times polls have insisted that Donald Trump held a substantial lead over incumbent Joe Biden in the presidential race — often painting a dismal picture for Democrats and causing widespread freakouts within the party over whether Biden should be replaced as a candidate
But on Saturday morning, the Times polling finally fell in line with other recent surveys, and while it still has Trump barely in the lead — bucking a slew of other recent polls that insist Biden has pulled ahead — the Times survey did admit that Biden has closed the gap of past Times polling.
President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
The polling comes just before Trump’s historic criminal trial in New York City, the first for a former American president. He faces charges related to falsifying records for a hush-money payment to porn star, Stormy Daniels. The case is one of four involving felony indictments against Trump, but the only one so far with a start date before the November election.
In addition, the polling doesn’t take into consideration the recent ruling by the Arizona Supreme Court to reinstitute an 1864 law banning abortion in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Trump and the GOP are being blamed for women’s loss of reproductive rights throughout the country, but the Arizona law — seen as the most draconian — will put the key swing state in play and likely move polls even more in the Democrats’ direction.
Earlier in the week,Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg posted to X, formerly Twitter, his take on recent polls.
“Time now for stories on how the election is changing,” Rosenberg wrote. “Biden is gaining ground. Data is clear as day now.”
He added: “Biden is gaining ground. The Congressional Generic is improving. Dem Senate polling is holding. National landscape for Democrats has gotten better in recent weeks. It is no longer accurate to say Trump leads or is favored.”
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