In elections across the country, the abortion issue is proving to be political kryptonite for Republicans. And now, a columnist is suggesting a major swing state's recent abortion restrictions threaten to doom former President Donald Trump's hopes of retaking the White House in November, and in turn, Republicans' down-ballot electoral chances.
In a Saturday column for the British Independent newspaper, columnist Jon Sopel wrote that Trump's "woman problem" is growing more urgent by the day. He cited the Arizona Supreme Court's recent ruling to uphold a draconian anti-abortion law from 1864 — before women had voting rights and even before Arizona even became a state — as an event that radicalized women voters in both the Grand Canyon State. He opined that the wrath of women voters would doom the GOP if abortion becomes the defining electoral issue in 2024
"What makes this so radioactive for the Republican Party is that abortion will almost certainly be on the ballot in November," Sopel wrote. "There have been other races where candidates have sought to weaponize the abortion issue and – again – it has cost Republicans dear. So, Trump has a problem."
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During a recent press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump — while standing alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) — bragged that he "broke Roe v. Wade," in reference to his three appointed Supreme Court justices overturning the Constitutionally protected right to abortions that had been in place since 1973. And earlier this month, the former president issued a statement saying that abortion should be left up to states.
However, the overwhelming backlash from the Arizona's decision — in which a state's high court used the legal vacuum created by the end of Roe to decide the abortion issue — caused Trump to waffle on his position. When a reporter asked Trump, point-blank if he thought Arizona's supreme court justices "went too far" in effectively outlawing all abortions, Trump said, "yeah, they did."
"I think it’ll be straightened out and, as you know, it’s all about state’s rights and it will be straightened out," Trump said. "And I’m sure the governor and everybody else have got to bring it back into reason and that it will be taken care of I think."
Trump has to be careful, however, as being too forceful in his condemnation of the Arizona Supreme Court could anger Evangelical Christians — a critical demographic bloc among his base. Newsweek reported that far-right Christian voters who have been seeking a nationwide ban on abortion are frustrated with the former president stating that he would not sign a national ban on abortion if Congress sent a bill to his desk.
READ MORE: Trump backtracks on major policy position that could decide election after AZ court ruling
"Trump sees nothing but electoral peril on that route. Keep it sensible; leave it up to states," Sopel wrote. "And as has been seen in Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky – and in House races, such as New York, there are two effects: one, higher turnout; two, it is manna for Democrats, who’ve made supporting a woman’s right to choose a cornerstone of their campaigning."
Aside from Arizona, Florida voters will also head to the polls in November with abortion on the ballot. While the Sunshine State has grown more reliably red in recent years, Floridians will be voting on Amendment 4 — which would permanently enshrine abortion rights in the Florida state constitution — in the general election. That amendment has the support of 56% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans and 44% of independents according to an Emerson College poll. Notably, the also traditionally Republican state of Ohio passed a similar amendment in 2023. But in 2024, partisan control of the US Senate and the presidency will also be up for grabs in Florida. Sopel wrote that abortion blowback could result in tough losses for the GOP.
"For 50 years, conservative and Republican groups have dreamed of getting rid of federal abortion laws. Now they’ve got it, they don’t know what to do with it. Like the dog that catches the car," Sopel wrote. "Be careful what you wish for."
Click here to read Sopel's full column (subscription required).
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