In a recent bullish forecast, Bank of America predicts a potential 19% surge in the S&P 500 by August 2025.
What Happened: Stephen Suttmeier, Bank of America’s technical analyst, highlighted that the S&P 500 has demonstrated 12 straight months of positive year-over-year gains, from March 2023 to March. This is a significant shift from the preceding year, which witnessed 12 consecutive months of negative year-over-year gains, reported Business Insider.
Suttmeier stated, “April 2023 broke this bearish streak with a positive YoY return. We viewed this as a bullish backdrop signal for US equities, and the SPX has rallied over 20% since then.”
Despite a 4% dip in the stock market in April, the long-term trend in stocks remains upward, indicating potential further gains. “Don’t lose sight of the secular bull market,” Suttmeier said.
Based on historical averages, Suttmeier anticipates the monthly streak of positive returns could extend from the current 12 months to 20 months, aligning with a 17% gain for stocks. This could result in the S&P 500 trading at 6,000 by August 2025, and possibly reaching as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
However, Suttmeier cautioned investors to monitor potential support levels for the S&P 500 at 5,000 and a range from 4,600 to 4,800, indicating a potential decline of up to 9% amid ongoing market weakness.
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Why It Matters: This prediction aligns with the long-term bullish outlook for the stock market. Earlier in February, a report from Ned Davis Research (NDR) suggested that the current bull market, which had lasted for 344 trading days, could continue for the foreseeable future. The report indicated that the current bull market is only halfway through its potential.
In March, Bank of America also predicted that the stock market’s long-term bull rally, now in its 11th year, is poised to continue, with the S&P 500 potentially surging by 34% by the end of 2026. This prediction was made by the bank’s technical strategist, Stephen Suttmeier, the same analyst who has now suggested a potential 19% surge by August 2025.
However, not all market experts are as optimistic. In March, NDR cautioned that the current market conditions could lead to a correction, although a bear market is not imminent. The firm’s chief global strategist, Tim Hayes, warned that prolonged market enthusiasm could make it vulnerable to potential corrections.
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