'Unprecedented' chaos in House GOP if Johnson gets the boot: CNN data reporter

The ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year by a handful of renegade Republicans triggered weeks of chaos and paralysis in Congress. But that's nothing to how bad it would be if House Speaker Mike Johnson gets the boot now, election forecaster Harry Enten told CNN's John Berman on Wednesday.

This comes as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is threatening to call such a vote if Johnson moves ahead with mounting pressure to vote on renewing defense aid to Ukraine — something he has resisted for weeks under threats from GOP hardliners, but is increasingly searching for a compromise on to break the impasse. Johnson has defied calls by Greene and her allies to resign.

Part of the reason it would be such a disaster, Enten said, is that the House GOP's majority has all but vanished in the time since the McCarthy fight, after a series of resignations and special elections. "I should note when this Congress began, the number was actually four votes. Then it dropped to three. Now it's to two, then it's to one."

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"How historic is this margin of one vote?" asked Berman.

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"Yeah, how historic — this to me is just absolutely amazing," said Enten. "Majorities as small as the GOP's will be, starting by Friday or Monday when the Congress reconvenes. Since 1901 Congress was in session, majorities as small as these. You got 2024, right, the only other ones since 1901, since the 20th century, was in 1917, that one may have even been smaller. I was going back through the congressional records, it's not clear whether it was two or one, or even zero votes."

"The fact is ... that if you're looking at this when you just have 1917 and 2024 and your historical analogy he is over a century ago, this is how historic that we're looking," he added.

"Okay, if Johnson were to go, that would make, what, the third speaker this Congress?" asked Berman.

"Correct," said Enten. "Remember Kevin McCarthy? I went back through the record books. House speakers per congress. There has never been three speakers in a particular Congress. Two is really rare, it's only happened 11 times. Usually you just have one; that's happened 107 times. So at 11 we're already in historic company. If we end up with three, we're truly unprecedented company."

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Harry Enten says House GOP situation is "unprecedented" www.youtube.com

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