-Analysis-
PARIS — Would an open war with Iran be "only," so to speak, a regional conflict? Or could it take on a more global, globalized character? The question obviously arises in light of the possible escalation between Iran and Israel, and in light of the cooperation, not to say alliance, between Tehran and the two powers challenging the Western order, Russia and China.
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Is Tehran-Moscow-Beijing this the new "axis of evil," to use the outdated terminology of Bush era neo-conservatives? Or is it a flirtation of circumstance based on a common adversary, the West?
Against Western order
To judge this strengthening of ties, we must first remember where we come from. In 2015, China and Russia were full signatories, alongside the West, to the nuclear agreement with Iran, aiming to halt Tehran's efforts to acquire atomic weapons.
Despite the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration was still hoping, 18 months ago, for Moscow's support in reviving this agreement abandoned by then U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, an unfortunate choice. Not only has the agreement failed to rise from the ashes, but Russia has drawn closer to Iran, which is supplying it with drones to use against Ukraine.
This hostile landscape is not like the Cold War of yesteryear.
Russia and China are not, therefore, Iran's historical allies and their rapprochements are recent. They are not based on a common ideology, or even a similar vision of the future, but on a shared hatred of the world order shaped by the West.
But we must be wary of hasty judgments. For more than a decade, we have been observing the constant rapprochement between Russia and China, while believing that this unnatural marriage is not a threat to the future. Yet it is still there, and China has become Russia's indispensable partner in the face of Western sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron last year and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week made the trip to Beijing to plead with Xi Jinping to put pressure on Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. In vain: the Chinese president may moderate his Russian counterpart's nuclear threats, but Xi supplies Putin with the electronic components he needs for his war effort.
A hybrid force
Today, there is a joint offensive against the West on the part of these three countries; four if we add North Korea, which is also supplying Russia with the weapons it needs. This is spelled out in black and white in an internal Russian text revealed on Wednesday by The Washington Post.
The strategic document, dated April 2023, sets out Russian efforts to forge alliances against the U.S., explicitly describing support for "escalation in the Middle East, around Israel, Iran and Syria," There is also talk of weakening "unfriendly countries," i.e. the U.S. and Europe, from within.
This hostile landscape is not like the Cold War of yesteryear. There's no need for ideological alliances or long-term convergences; all that's needed is an agreement to weaken the West and its allies. Neither an "axis of evil," nor an alliance of circumstances, but something hybrid that makes the world more dangerous and uncertain, while the logic of war is on the march in the Middle East and elsewhere.