It looks as if it may finally happen.
With support from Democrats, the House of Representatives is now poised to approve aid to Ukraine, which many experts contend could lose its defensive war against Russia because ammo and funds are running low. And, in a twist that most pundits didn’t forsee, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has put his speakership on the line by going to bat for the aid despite hard-liners angrily threatening his political career if he passes it.
The US House pushed ahead on Friday with a $95bn foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian support after Democrats came to the rescue of Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker.
A coalition of lawmakers helped the legislation clear a procedural hurdle to reach final votes this weekend, as Friday morning’s vote followed a rare move late on Thursday for a House committee that normally votes along party lines.
The dramatic action took place on Capitol Hill on Thursday night in order to save the Ukraine aid legislation from rightwing rebels.
On Friday morning Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, warned that if US aid was further delayed for Ukraine “there is a real risk it will arrive too late” to help the grinding resistance to Russia’s invasion.
Then the House voted on the procedure agreed the night before, again producing a seldom-seen outcome in the typically hyper-partisan chamber, with Democrats helping Johnson’s plan advance by 316 votes to 94.
Johnson now looks set to push forward this weekend on the package for Kyiv, Israel, Taiwan and other allies, which had stalled in the House after passing the Senate. This despite a firestorm of protest from hardline Republicans that could lead to an attempt to oust him.
The House is expected to vote on Saturday on the aid legislation that provides $61bn for the conflict in Ukraine, including $23bn to replenish US weapons, $26bn for Israel, including $9.1bn for humanitarian needs, and $8.12bn for the Indo-Pacific. If passed, it would then go back to the Senate.
The aid legislation is the latest in a series of must-pass bipartisan measures that Johnson has helped shepherd through Congress, including two huge spending bills and a controversial reauthorization of federal surveillance programs.
Republicans hold a narrow House majority, 218-213 , a margin so scant that Mike Gallagher is postponing his mid-session retirement, originally set for Friday, so the Republican representative can be present to vote for the bill.
On Thursday night, the four Democrats on the House rules committee voted with five Republicans to advance the aid package that Johnson has devised, agreeing procedures.
One of the bigggest political dramas in recent weeks has been whether Johnson would allow for a vote on Ukraine aid. As bad news about Ukraine’s situation was emerging publically and in intelligence briefings to Johnson and other political leaders, suspense reached a crescendo since the consensus was that if Ukraine didn’t get aid ASAP it would be on its last leg – and those that nixed aid would be to blamed for its fall politically and in the eyes of history and their own children.
In a piece titled “How Johnson and Biden locked arms on Ukraine” Politico details how the upcoming “vote on a foreign aid package is validation of a White House strategy to court the speaker behind the scenes while letting him find his own path.”
Speaker Mike Johnson’s sudden bid to deliver aid to Ukraine came days after fresh intelligence described the U.S. ally at a true make-or-break moment in its war with Russia.
It was exactly the kind of dire assessment that President Joe Biden and the White House had spent months privately warning Johnson was inevitable.
The House GOP leader is embracing $60.8 billion in assistance to Ukraine in a push to prevent deep losses on the battlefield, amid warnings that Ukrainians are badly outgunned and losing faith in the U.S. following months of delay in providing new funds.
The intelligence, shown to lawmakers last week and described by two members who have seen it, built on weeks of reports that have alarmed members of Congress and Biden administration officials. On Thursday, CIA Director William Burns warned that, barring more U.S. aid, Ukraine “could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024.”
It heightened the sense of urgency surrounding a White House effort to convince Johnson to hold a public vote on Ukraine aid that has dragged on behind the scenes since the day he became speaker. Johnson had resisted for months in the face of growing threats to his speakership if he sided with Biden and allowed the vote.
Since the last time Congress approved aid to Ukraine in late 2022, conservative skepticism of sending U.S. weapons and dollars to the country has grown, threatening Johnson’s speakership as well as Biden’s foreign policy agenda.
But he has now effectively locked arms with the president: Johnson’s alignment with Biden this week has extended at times even to deploying similar talking points in favor of funding Ukraine, and comes in defiance of efforts by conservatives like Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) to rally a rebellion.
“He realizes that he can’t put it off any longer,” one lawmaker said of Johnson, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “We’ve been working with him for months to try to get him there.”
The lawmaker characterized the Ukraine intel now circulating as “pretty stark compared to where we were a few months ago.
So far three MAGA Repbublican House members have said they’ll pursue a motion to vacate against Johnson. However, many analysts predict that if that happens many Democrats would vote to keep Johnson where he is. The reason: Johnson doesn’t have all the political baggage with Democrats that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had. McCarthy would not only switch positions but he had years of attacking Democrats under his belt. If Democrats provide the votes – which would enfuriate many far-right House Republicans even more – Johnson Jcould hold onto his speakership through November, Politico reports.
Graphic: Dreamstime
