Russian forces are likely to ramp up ongoing offensive operations, as well as missile strikes and drone attacks in the coming weeks, capitalizing on weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses, according to the ISW report.
According to ISW observations, Russian forces continued and in some areas intensified ongoing offensive operations, likely leveraging unusually dry spring conditions and the shortage of Ukrainian equipment before the promised Western security assistance arrives.
Russian forces also sought to exploit weaknesses in Ukraine's air defense in an attempt to disrupt the Ukrainian power grid and inflict long-term damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and defense-industrial capabilities.
Following the announcement of the American aid package, the Russian military command is likely to escalate offensive operations, as well as missile and drone strikes, to achieve significant operational gains, which will undoubtedly be more challenging against well-equipped Ukrainian forces.
Russian troops may still achieve significant operational successes in the coming weeks and may prioritize frontlines where Ukrainian defense appears relatively unstable, especially west of Avdiivka, or areas where Russian forces are within reach of strategically significant objectives, such as near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces may hope that intensified missile strikes and ongoing drone attacks could disrupt the Ukrainian power grid and force Ukraine to contend with a humanitarian crisis alongside ongoing defense operations.
They may also shift their focus to targeting Ukrainian transportation infrastructure to limit Ukraine's ability to adequately deploy manpower and equipment at critical frontline areas.
Russian forces are likely to also exploit the weakness of Ukrainian air defense along the frontline and intensify bomb strikes in the coming weeks in hopes of inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian defense positions before it becomes riskier for Russian aviation to carry out these attacks against the backdrop of enhanced Ukrainian air defense positions.