The United States' assistance of over $60 billion, supporting effective defense, will provide the Ukrainian military with the much-needed respite. But it's unlikely to lead to a breakthrough in the course of the war without additional resources, according to Bloomberg.
Much will depend on how quickly the US assistance reaches the front line. With a six-month delay in Congress, the Ukrainian army has faced a severe shortage of ammunition and manpower, which the Russian troops exploited.
According to Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at Kyiv National Institute for Strategic Studies, the assistance will give the Ukrainian army a break, the opportunity to slow down Russia's advance, conduct effective defense, and minimize losses. But for Ukraine to advance, additional assistance is needed, which is a challenging prospect for the US because of Republicans' resistance in Congress.
“The question is whether there will be aid and in what volume in 2025 and beyond — as Putin’s strategy is to wait it out,” he said.
According to the media sources, Germany will continue to press European allies this week, including France and Italy, on the supply of air defense systems and their components to Ukraine.
According to analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War, even if "US materiel moves quickly, transport logistics will likely mean the aid will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks."
“The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid,” the analysts said.
Significance of US assistance to Ukraine
According to media reports, the first batch of American military aid could be delivered to Ukraine within a few days after the bill is signed by the US President, after being approved by the Senate. It is likely to include ammunition for air defense systems and artillery.
The Senate believes the US can send aid to Ukraine as early as this week. Among other things, the package will include ATACMS missiles.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine "now has a chance to stabilize the situation and seize the initiative."
ISW forecasts that Ukraine is likely to be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024.
Germany has sent letters to dozens of countries urging them to strengthen Ukraine's air defense. Germany has also decided to transfer an additional Patriot system to Ukraine.