With another week of college baseball in the books, it’s time again to take a look ahead to the postseason. On Monday, we released our latest Field of 64 projections and the NCAA Tournament looks to be wide open from almost top to bottom at this point in the year, especially when looking at potential hosts.
On the hosting line, things look a little bit different in our projections this week. Two new teams have emerged as top 16 overall seeds in the field, as South Carolina (No. 10) and Georgia (No. 15) are hosting. They take the place of Coastal Carolina (previously No. 12 seed) and Vanderbilt (previously No. 16 seed), both of which dropped down to being two seeds.
The SEC and ACC, as expected, lead the way across this week’s field. Both leagues have six teams hosting a regional. The other four top 16 seeds come from the AAC, Pac-12, Missouri Valley and Big 12.
A lot will surely change over the final few weeks before the NCAA Tournament field is announced. Conference tournaments could play a big role in the eventual hosting picture. But for now, here’s how we view the hosting race with three weeks remaining before conference tournaments get underway.
Current top 8 seeds in Field of 64 projections
Texas A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee, Clemson, Florida State, East Carolina, Kentucky, North Carolina
Right now, either Texas A&M or Arkansas will be the top overall seed. Barring some serious collapses over the next couple weeks, it would be surprising to see anybody else step into that spot. The Aggies are 38-6 overall, 15-6 in the SEC and No. 1 in RPI. The Razorbacks are 37-7 overall, 16-5 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI. Texas A&M and Arkansas will battle it out in Fayetteville in the final weekend of the regular season.
Just behind the top two, we have Tennessee, Clemson and Florida State. Tennessee is 37-7 overall, 15-6 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI, with remaining weekends at Florida, at Vanderbilt and vs. South Carolina. Clemson is 34-9 overall, 16-5 in the ACC, and No. 4 in RPI with weekends vs. Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest and vs. Boston College left. Florida State is 34-9 overall, 13-8 in the ACC and No. 6 in RPI with weekends remaining vs. NC State, at Pitt and vs. Georgia Tech. All three teams could wind up as the No. 3 overall seed.
Rounding out the top eight, we have East Carolina, Kentucky and North Carolina. ECU is on quite the roll, sitting 35-8 overall, 14-4 in the AAC and No. 8 in RPI. Kentucky has lost two straight series, but still sits at 33-9, 16-5 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI. North Carolina is 33-11 overall, 17-7 in the ACC and No. 7 in RPI. Kentucky has weekends left vs. Arkansas, at Florida and vs. Vanderbilt, while UNC finishes vs. Louisville and at Duke. ECU should cruise through the rest of the regular season, and the Pirates do have a head-to-head series win over the Tar Heels.
Top 8 contenders
While the race to hosting a regional feels wide open, the fight for a top eight seed seems to be getting less crowded. Oregon State has been around top eight territory all year, and move back into the No. 9 seed after a strong week. The Beavers are 33-10 overall but 12-8 in the Pac-12 and have work to do to finish on top of the league standings. They also sit No. 12 in RPI.
South Carolina wasn’t hosting for us last week, though they were heavily considered. After a series win over Kentucky, the Gamecocks get the nod this week and move all the way up to No. 10. South Carolina is 29-14 overall and 11-10 in the SEC, also sitting at No. 11 in RPI. They’ll need to stay over .500 in SEC play, and finish the year at Missouri, vs. Georgia and at Tennessee. If they take care of business, they’ll be a pretty strong host.
Other projected hosts
Wake Forest, Indiana State, Oklahoma, Virginia, Georgia, Duke
Wake Forest had a disappointing week, losing a midweek at Elon and dropping two out of three at Notre Dame. Still, they should be able to find their way into hosting. The Demon Deacons are currently 27-16 overall, 12-12 in the ACC and No. 16 in RPI. After hosting Western Carolina this weekend, Wake Forest finishes vs. Clemson and at NC State. Winning one of those series would likely be enough.
Indiana State still feels like a safe bet to host, as does the winner of the Big 12. The Sycamores are on track to win the Missouri Valley with a 31-9 overall record and a 14-4 league record. They currently sit at No. 10 in RPI. Right now, Oklahoma is our projected Big 12 winner, though the race is very tight. The Sooners are 26-16 overall, but 15-6 in Big 12 play and No. 18 in RPI.
The final few spots are wide open. A pair of ACC teams are right on the cut line to host in Virginia and Duke. Virginia is 33-12 overall, 14-10 in the ACC and No. 14 in RPI. They have been inconsistent at times and pitching is a real concern, but they finish the season with two home series vs. NC State and Virginia Tech and will be in position tohost if they at least split those. Duke is currently 30-14 and 14-10 in the ACC, but No. 19 in RPI. The Blue Devils finish at Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina, and that final weekend could be a massive one for both teams.
Georgia also snuck into the hosting race this week. The Bulldogs have stayed in great RPI position all year, and currently sit at No. 9. Georgia us currently 31-12 overall and 10-11 in the SEC, and they probably need to get to .500 in league play to host. But with a remaining weekend schedule vs. Vanderbilt, at South Carolina and vs. Florida, the path is undoubtedly there to do it and we expect them to.
Teams in contention to host
NC State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Arizona, Dallas Baptist, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, Nebraska, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Coastal Carolina
NC State, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State were all strongly considered to host in this week’s Field of 64 projections. NC State is 25-16 overall, but 12-9 in the ACC and No. 20 in RPI. They finish at Florida State, at Virginia and vs. Wake Forest, so if they find success in that run, they’ll be hard to keep away from a top 16 seed. Mississippi State is 19-15 and 12-9 in the SEC, currently No. 28 in RPI. They finish vs. Alabama, at Arkansas and vs. Missouri. If the Bulldogs win the series against Alabama and Missouri and don’t get swept at Arkansas, they’ll be right there.
Oklahoma State will likely host if they’re able to win the Big 12, and they could even if they don’t win it. The Cowboys are 30-14, 14-7 in Big 12 play and No. 21 in RPI. They don’t have a lot of room for error, but the path is there. The same can be said for Arizona. The Wildcats could certainly win the Pac-12 as they currently sit at 26-16 overall and 14-7 in league play. Arizona’s final weekend is at home against Oregon State, and that series could loom large.
UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine both have a chance, but not having a conference tournament could hurt them. Both teams are 14-4 in Big West play, while UC Santa Barbara is No. 17 in RPI and UC Irvine is No. 26. Neither can afford to lose many, if any, games down the stretch. Dallas Baptist is in a similar boat, currently 31-11 overall but 10-5 and not in first place in Conference USA. Though they sit No. 13 in RPI, Dallas Baptist likely needs some help to get the nod.
Coastal Carolina and Vanderbilt both hosted for us last week, but don’t get the nod in the latest projections. Coastal Carolina suffered a brutal 0-5 week that included a pair of losses at Creighton and a weekend sweep against Troy. Vanderbilt lost its series against Mississippi State. Both figure to be two seeds right now, but getting back into the hosting picture won’t be easy.
Nebraska and Alabama both have a chance to get in the race as well. Nebraska will likely need to win the Big Ten, and they are currently 27-14 overall, 10-5 in league play and No. 25 in RPI. They need a lot of help, but Nebraska can’t be ruled completely out. Alabama currently sits No. 15 in RPI and is 28-16 overall, but also sits at 9-12 in SEC play. They need to get back to .500 in SEC play at least, and that is very realistic with series left at Mississippi State, vs. LSU and at Auburn.
The 16 regional hosts will be revealed on Sunday, May 26. The full NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed during the selection show on Monday, May 27 at 12 noon ET.
The post NCAA Tournament Hosting Picture: Two hosts emerge, others fall out in latest Field of 64 appeared first on On3.
