A major domino fell in the F1 driver market last week. Nico Hulkenberg is leaving Haas and heading back to Sauber, set to become Audi in 2026.
Hulkenberg becomes the second driver to commit to a new team for next season. The first, of course, was Lewis Hamilton, who’s joining Ferrari.
It’s bad news for incumbent duo Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, at least one of whom will now lose their drive. Bottas is believed to hold a slight edge over his teammate as it stands.
But both of them could be out of a seat as Audi continue to prowl the market. Their top target is Carlos Sainz, the victim of Hamilton’s Ferrari move.
Bottas could potentially have a lifeline, with a return to former team Williams possible. But James Vowles doesn’t appear especially keen on Zhou.
Elsewhere, Haas must now find a replacement for Hulkenberg. The 36-year-old has been a vital figure for the team since he joined at the start of 2023, scoring 13 of their 17 points.
The future of Kevin Magnussen remains uncertain too. Magnussen, like more than half of the current grid, is out of contract at the end of the year.
Natalie Pinkham says Nico Hulkenberg move plays into one driver’s hands
Speaking on the F1 Nation podcast, Natalie Pinkham named one driver who looks set to benefit from Hulkenberg’s decision. After all, alongside the seat at Mercedes, it opens up a second vacancy on the grid.
She said: “It’s fantastic news as well for Ollie Bearman for Haas. There’s a clear pathway [to race for the team in 2025].”
Bearman, who scored six points on an emergency F1 debut in Sainz’s Ferrari at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, will drive in six FP1 sessions for Haas this year. Team boss Ayao Komatsu regards him as a ‘total package’.
But team owner Gene Haas could still take some convincing. That might come in the form of a Ferrari engine discount, because they would be training up one of the Scuderia’s young drivers.
Haas could sign Valtteri Bottas if Oliver Bearman isn’t ready
While Bearman is now in a strong position to secure a full-time F1 debut, it still isn’t guaranteed. There’s work to do in the remainder of 2024.
He’ll have to continue to impress Haas in his practice outings, the first of which will come in Imola next month. And they might also have an eye on his performances in F2, where he’s currently 19th in the championship on two points (albeit having missed the Saudi Arabia races).
If, for whatever reason, Haas decide against Bearman, they do have other options. One of those would be to perform an inadvertent ‘swap’ with Sauber and sign Bottas.
The Finn would bring similar experience to Hulkenberg – both drivers have started more than 200 Grands Prix – and an even stronger track record of success. He won 10 Grands Prix during his time at Mercedes.
In the end, Komatsu may favour the balance of a young talent in Bearman and an experienced hand in Magnussen. After the failure of their Mick Schumacher/Nikita Mazepin partnership, it may seem like a sensible compromise.
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