Southampton have just one game left of the regular Championship season.
Given they are guaranteed a play-off finish, the Saints will see their campaign extended by at least two games as they battle for promotion.
Russell Martin must take his side to Leeds United on Saturday in a game that looked as though it could be an end of season automatic promotion decider for much of the season.
Instead, it is effectively a meaningless game for Southampton, although it represents an opportunity to put an end to a run of three consecutive defeats.
For Leeds, promotion on the final day is out of their hands.
Ipswich Town need just a point at home to already relegated Huddersfield Town, but Leeds will be determined to do their bit and take all three points in front of their home crowd.
However, had it not been for one key statistic, perhaps Southampton could already have a spot in the Premier League tied up.
Adam Armstrong worst in Championship for worrying statistic
That statistic is one that has been recorded by 27-year-old Adam Armstrong.
Having signed for the south coast club for £15 million in summer 2021, Armstrong had struggled to recreate his previous goalscoring exploits having made the step up to the Premier League at the time.
Prior to this season, Armstrong had scored just five Southampton goals according to Transfermarkt.
This season, the attacker has stepped up and has scored 20 league goals and provided 13 assists in the Championship.
Whilst he has clearly flourished under the tutelage of Martin – and been effective in the wide position his manager has primarily played him – it could be argued that this is simply his level.
The man signed from Blackburn Rovers managed 28 goals and five assists in the Championship in 2020/21 which was what tempted Southampton to sign him in the first place.
The worrying thing about Armstrong is that, despite scoring a lot in the EFL, he has never been hugely efficient with his chances.
Armstrong may be Southampton’s primary source of goals this season and second top scorer in the league, but that fact remains.
In fact, Armstrong ranks by far the worst in the Championship for big chances missed this season.
According to Fotmob, Armstrong has missed a remarkable 28 big chances this season.
For context, Coventry City’s Haji Wright is second on the list but has missed ten less big chances than Armstrong with 18.
Armstrong finishing a concern ahead of play-offs
It may seem harsh to critique the finishing of the man who has fired almost a quarter of Southampton’s league goals this season.
However, the statistic is likely a key reason Armstrong was not successful in making the step up to the Premier League.
In the Championship, especially for a team near the top, you get a lot more chances than you do in the top flight.
In the second tier, it is not uncommon that Armstrong will have five decent chances a game. In the Premier League you may get just one and when it comes you have to take it.
Southampton have not been goal shy this season, scoring 85 in their 45 games so far.
A number of these goals have come in big wins, with five in games against Huddersfield and Swansea City and four against Blackburn, Norwich City and Sheffield Wednesday.
All too often this season, though, Southampton have failed to be clinical.
The recent defeat to Cardiff City was one painful example of this, as Southampton missed five big chances according to Sofascore.
Southampton also drew blanks in recent games against both Blackburn and in the 5-0 battering at the hands of Leicester City.
The upcoming play-offs are likely to be tense, cagey affairs.
It is likely that chances will be few and far between, so Southampton had better hope that Armstrong and co. can buck the trend and be clinical when they do.
