By Matt Hardy
Like most people, I will look at this weekend’s Investec Champions Cup fixtures and go on to predict a final between four-time champions Leinster and five-time winners Toulouse.
The two clubs are European powerhouses and it would take some upset by either Harlequins across the English Channel or Northampton Saints across the Irish Sea to prevent that outcome.
But let’s humour ourselves and look at what each of the Premiership teams needs to do to upset the odds and reach the final at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium later this month.
In Northampton’s case, they’ve done the hard bit ahead of their tie against Leinster at Croke Park. They’ve understood the historical importance of being an English side – club or country – to play in a venue made famous for the killing of innocent Irish spectators during the Troubles.
Respect the opposition
Their coach Phil Dowson has spoken of the respect required to show up at Croke Park, and the intention to attack this game with full capabilities. Plenty would say this is the greatest mark of respect the English table toppers could provide.
It is going to be tough for the English side; Leinster are basically the Ireland team and they’re so powerful.
Northampton will need to get ahead early and build upon it. They have the skill set to play Leinster at their own game, and do it better than the tournament favourites, but whether they can do it for 80 minutes remains the biggest doubt.
Leinster are of course the overwhelming favourites, 1/8 with the bookies, yet that could be their downfall.
We saw them struggle against Munster in the semi-finals of the United Rugby Championship last season before butchering a 17-0 lead against La Rochelle in the Champions Cup final to end up as the losers.
So it is not all against Northampton Saints, but they do face an uphill battle to come out victorious in the Irish capital.
The other semi-final is where I see the best chance of an English upset, however.
Champions Cup upset?
Toulouse are a brilliant team and have so much talent throughout their ranks, but Harlequins can match them for running rugby. And that could count for quite a lot.
It is set to be sunny in Toulouse this weekend as 33,000 watch the two sides battle it out for a place in the final.
Surprisingly Toulouse are bigger favourites over Harlequins than Leinster are over Northampton Saints. But the Londoners proved that they can go to France and turn on the afterburners when they beat Bordeaux in the quarter-finals.
They may come unstuck, however, if Toulouse change their game plan.
The reigning Top 14 champions have a plethora of internationals in their pack that have the ability to play both a running game and a brutish one. Should Harlequins let the match fall into the latter camp then they are in trouble.
There are two mouth-watering Champions Cup semi-finals this weekend and the home teams are the favourites. But that gives the English away sides a bit of freedom to go out there and try to upset the apple cart. And if it is achieved, I think it will be in Toulouse.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development behavioural change and executive coaching support. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn @OlliePhillips11
