"The NBU forecasts that economic growth will slow to 3% in 2024, partly due to losses in the energy infrastructure and an expected deficit of electricity (around 5%, according to the NBU's assumptions)," the report said.
"GDP growth in 2025-2026 will accelerate due to a more rapid normalization of conditions for economic activity — to 5.3% and 4.5%, respectively."
Read also: Ukraine's exports surge to record high since onset of Russia’s full-scale war
This acceleration will be facilitated by improvements in consumer and investment sentiment, as well as the gradual return of migrants and progress in euro integration reforms. As a result, real GDP is projected to approach its potential level by the end of 2026.
Economic recovery will persist thanks to the high adaptability of Ukrainian businesses and the population, the NBU said. A soft fiscal policy, a revival of external demand, further development of export routes, and household income growth will bolster this trend. However, the significant negative impact of the war on economic activity remains a concern. The impulse of rapid growth on a low comparison base in 2022 is also gradually waning.
Read also: What awaits Ukraine's GDP, the Ministry of Economy explained
Head of communications for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Julie Kozack, earlier reportedly stated that Ukraine will need financing of approximately $42 billion in 2024. At least $32 billion of this amount should be official donor support.
Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned of a threat to the world economy at the World Government Summit in Dubai on Feb. 12.
Read also: Frozen Russian assets may help Ukraine wage war four more years - Reuters
According to the IMF forecast, Ukraine's GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024. During the third review of the IMF's extended financing program for Ukraine, this rate was estimated to be in the range of 3-4% in March.
Meanwhile, the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been kept at 6.5%, which is higher than the 2023 figure at 5.3%, according to the State Statistics Service. The IMF also expects average annual inflation to slow to 6.4% this year from 12.9% last year and slightly accelerate to 7.6% in 2025.
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
Section: Nation
Author: Владислава Топоркова
