By Jessica Frank-Keyes
Rishi Sunak looks safe for now, but after a local election drubbing the battle for the future of the world’s second oldest political party, writes Jessica Frank-Keyes
They say it’s the hope that kills you.
And throughout Friday afternoon and evening, as the Tories hung on in Tees Valley, and whispers emerged of a Conservative upset in London, if you squinted hard and really, really avoided looking at the mounting council losses, there did appear to be a faint glimmer of it.
But on Saturday, as the mirage shimmered and faded away, the dawning realisation, then, must have been all the more painful.
Sadiq Khan romped to victory in the capital, making history as he was elected for a record third term. A Labour loss would have been a virtually unprecedented polling error – even as higher turnout in leafy outer London sent hearts fluttering or prompted mass delusion depending on how you look at it.
While Labour secured a win in the West Midlands even Keir Starmer was taken aback by, calling Richard Parker’s election as mayor “phenomenal” and “beyond our expectations”.
It’s quite something in the wake of an election weekend when an (admittedly somewhat disgruntled) ex-minister feels the need to state on the BBC on Sunday morning that “there is going to be a Conservative party the day after the election”.
But whether or not Paul Scully could have beaten Khan to City Hall is one thing – and I imagine the race would have been much closer. The prospect of wipeout is quite another.
The state of play, then, of the world’s second oldest political party is looking increasingly dire.
Parliament? An 80-seat majority, secured in 2019 amid predictions of a decade in power, now dwindled to just 47, with Labour securing yet another mammoth by-election swing in Blackpool South on Thursday.
Councils? Let’s leave it to the expert. National treasure of pollsters and politicos everywhere, Professor Sir John Curtice dubbed the last few days “one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40 years”.
Mayors? Putting Lord Ben Houchen to one side, Labour secured every other mayoral office that currently exists.
That emerging early narrative, that things weren’t quite so bad as all that, is – in my view – part of an understandable wider trend among Conservatives, from the Prime Minister to fail or refuse to realise quite what’s staring them in the face.
It’s hard not to wonder if it comes from an unwillingness to learn from their opponent’s mistakes as well as their own. Could Labour’s wilderness years under Jeremy Corbyn, where the electorate were repeatedly offered a stronger version of the policies they’d just rejected, offer the Conservative’s a glimpse of their own future?
The ‘only a flesh wound’ vibe was gamely assisted by the suggestion that the Tories’ likely national equivalent vote share was just nine points off Labour – a far sight closer than the 20-point average reflected in the opinion polls.
Look, I’m no polling expert but as many have said, people vote very differently at local and general elections. The Liberal Democrats beat the Tories to second place on council seats. Independent parties gained almost 100 councillors; and the Green Party was up by 74.
Under our first-past-the-post system we simply do not see these voting patterns when the public selects their MPs. This will be comforting to the Labour leadership as they tot up their losses over their initial stance on Gaza.
And Labour’s vote distribution has become far more suited to the quirks of our FPTP system. If we go back to mayors, they won in the Tory heartland of York and North Yorkshire.
In by-elections, they secured Leave voting Wellingborough and Tamworth, as well as Mid Bedfordshire, Conservative-voting since 1931.
All signs, I’m afraid, do point to the polling being broadly accurate.
However, mass panic and an influx of letters to the 1922 Committee’s Sir Graham Brady may not transpire. Let me put my money where my mouth is and predict Rishi Sunak will lead his party into the next general election.
Serious players who hope to rebuild the Tories as an electoral force will be looking beyond even the next leader, as they polish their ambitions.
Whether or not they opt to find a safe seat (if there is one) for Andy Street, or simply enjoy a last summer of ‘Pints with Penny’, the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party is on.
Jessica Frank-Keyes is the political reporter at CityAM
