With Aston Villa set to travel to Olympiacos for the second leg of their Europa Conference League semi-finals, one statistic shows that Unai Emery’s side are almost certain to crash out.
Villa face their biggest game of the season on Thursday night. Emery’s side needs to overturn their 4-2 defeat to Olympiacos at Villa Park if they want to progress to the final.
The Europa Conference League is Villa’s biggest chance of winning a major trophy this century as the end of the campaign looms.
After a terrible defeat last week, these hopes look weak. Olympiacos are a highly experienced European side who have overseen multiple big results over the years.
If Villa want to return to Greece again in May, they must win by at least two goals which would take the tie to extra-time.
However, over recent years, English sides have not fared too well at Olympiacos.
English teams struggle at Olympiacos
Due to Olympiacos’ recent European prestige, they have come up against multiple English sides in UEFA’s competitions.
From 2009 to 2024, the Greek side has played seven different Premier League sides at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Arsenal have been the biggest visitors to the Mediterranean side, facing Olympiacos six times away from home in this 15-year spell.
Few English sides have been able to come away with a result. In the last 12 trips to the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, there have only been four occasions where an English side has won on the night.
Out of these four matches, there were only two which saw a Premier League side win by two goals or more.
Based on this trend, Villa has a 17% chance of overturning their first-leg result to take the tie to extra time.
Read more: How much Villa could earn if they win the Europa Conference League.
Aston Villa have the quality to overcome first-leg defeat in the Europa Conference League
Despite what history says Villa could easily go to Olympiacos and overcome their first leg defeat.
Emery’s side have visited tougher grounds this season and won by a two-goal margin. This was most recently seen in their 2-0 victory over Arsenal where multiple players in Villa’s first team impressed.
In the first leg, Villa proved multiple times that they can open up the opposition’s defence. While the hosts only managed to score two on the night they could have easily had more.
If Villa turns up on the night and plays like it is their biggest game of the season, Emery’s side will progress with ease.
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