Max Verstappen is the top target for Toto Wolff and Mercedes as they look to replace Lewis Hamilton. That’s no surprise given that the Dutchman has won the last three championships.
But convincing him to leave Red Bull purely for sporting reasons is a mighty task. Verstappen has taken four victories from six races this year and is the overwhelming favourite for the title.
With very few regulation changes expected for 2025, the likelihood is that he’ll be a five-time world champion within the next 18 months or so. Most drivers in that situation wouldn’t so much as think about a move.
There has been unrest off the track at Red Bull, with chief technical officer Adrian Newey handing in his resignation earlier this month. Verstappen himself hasn’t seemed particularly worried about that development.
Wolff has thrown a plethora of incentives at the 26-year-old up to this point. Financially, he could be in line for a ‘world record’ contract and a lucrative post-racing ambassadorship deal if he signs with the Silver Arrows.
The Mercedes team principal is also open to surrounding him with some of his Red Bull allies. That may be why he held discussions with Newey in the Miami GP paddock, and why he’s told Verstappen that he’s ready to hire Helmut Marko.
Max Verstappen still needs to see evidence of Mercedes progress before he joins
But none of these details can make up for Mercedes’ current sporting woes. The Silver Arrows seem as far away from winning races as they have at any point in F1’s ‘ground effect’ era.
After six races, they’ve already fallen 175 points behind Red Bull in the championship. They’ve yet to finish on the podium, let alone compete for victory.
As it stands, according to Auto Motor und Sport, Mercedes can’t provide ‘a car that Max Verstappen would want to sit in’. And that’s the biggest reservation they have to overcome.
Verstappen made that clear to Wolff and indeed the watching world in Miami when he said that he’d be in a ‘bad mood’ if he had to fight for fifth or sixth. They need to improve before they become a compelling option.
The 58-time race-winner could choose to play the long game and move now with one eye on the 2026 regulations. The last time there was a change of this magnitude in 2014, Mercedes stole a march on the field and won eight straight titles.
Having joined in 2013, Hamilton was in the perfect position to capitalise. But if Verstappen tries to pull off the same masterstroke, then he may be foregoing a clear shot at the title in 2025.
Will Max Verstappen and Red Bull lose their advantage?
After Lando Norris and McLaren beat Verstappen in Miami, some are wondering whether Red Bull could see their advantage whittled away. On the one hand, Norris did need a healthy slice of luck to take victory.
Without a perfectly-timed safety car midway through the race, it’s unlikely that he would have caught Verstappen. But equally, he was the fastest car on the track and pulled away from the RB20 at an eye-catching rate in the closing stages.
McLaren appear to have taken a significant jump after introducing an ‘astonishing’ upgrade package in Florida. Helmut Marko says he isn’t ‘worried’, partly because Red Bull will introduce updates of their own at Imola next weekend.
But Ferrari could also contend for the victory as they unveil their first major developments of the season. Staff at Maranello expect to gain as much as three-tenths of a second.
If Red Bull are no longer the outstanding, dominant force in F1 by the middle of the season, then perhaps Verstappen’s outlook on his future will change. Wolff will certainly be hoping that’s how the year pans out.
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